The collapse of international tourism due to the Covid-19 pandemic could lead to a loss of more than $ 4 trillion in global GDP over the years 2020 and 2021, or one and a half times the French GDP, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published this Wednesday. International tourism and the sectors that depend on it suffered an estimated loss of 2.4 trillion dollars in 2020 due to the direct and indirect impacts of a sharp drop in international tourist arrivals.
A similar loss could be recorded this year again, warns the report, co-produced by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), which specifies that the resumption of tourism will largely depend on the massive distribution of vaccines against the Covid- 19 globally. “The world needs a global vaccine effort that will protect workers, mitigate social damage and make strategic decisions about tourism, taking into account potential structural changes,” said Isabelle Durant, acting secretary general of Unctad.
63% decrease in tourist flows in the best case
As vaccination rates are uneven, with less than 1% of the population vaccinated in some countries and more than 60% elsewhere, the report notes that tourism losses are greater in developing countries. Thus, three more or less pessimistic scenarios are presented for the year 2021, the most optimistic evoking a reduction in tourist arrivals of only… 63% on average. According to the UNWTO, industry experts do not expect to return to usual crowds before 2023, “or even later”, the main obstacles being restrictions on travel, the slow containment of the virus, the low traveler confidence and an unfavorable economic environment.
The number of international tourist arrivals decreased by 74% in 2020 compared to 2019 and the start of 2021 was even bleaker for most destinations, with an average global decline of 88% compared to the pre-pandemic period. The most affected regions are Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, North Africa and South Asia. The least affected are North America, Western Europe and the Caribbean.
“Today, international tourism resembles that of thirty years ago. It is as if we were in the 1980s in terms of flow, ”described Zoritsa Urosevic of the UNWTO. Employment is threatened: “Unskilled workers made unemployed by the drop in tourist arrivals will probably not find jobs elsewhere,” the report warns. The UNWTO estimates that 100 to 120 million direct jobs linked to tourism are at risk.