“Live not for your presence to be noticed, but for your absence to be felt,” said Bob Marley. A maxim that could serve as advice to French politicians as the 2022 presidential election approaches. To be popular, nothing better than to be discreet.
Christiane Taubira can be seen as a typical example.
According to an Ipsos survey published on December 14, when the former Minister of Justice was very discreet, 46% of voters on the left said they were ready to put her name in the ballot box if she presented herself, a percentage much higher than that for Yannick Jadot or Anne Hidalgo.
But the more the former Keeper of the Seals has shown signs of a real interest in the presidential election – culminating in the announcement of his candidacy this Saturday, the more it has lost this popular momentum. On January 10, Ifop thus attributes 3.5% of maximum voting intentions to it, while Ipsos credits it with 3% on January 6. The same dynamic could be observed with Eric Zemmour, losing momentum when formalizing his candidacy.
Run away from me, I vote for you
” Popularity and the image of a political personality that precedes the candidacy do not necessarily tell us things about his dynamics once engaged in the presidential race”, abounds Bruno Cautrès, teacher at Sciences Po and specialist in voting and participation. Politics. Many candidates even find themselves disappointed and disappointed not to convert the essay between the public figure and the presidential candidate, analyzes the expert.
In the end, the political world is not so different from your attempt to seduce your crush in real life: “To be desired, you have to create a lack and be absent,” says Véronique Reille Soult, CEO of Backbone Consulting, a consulting firm in reputational strategy and opinion management. Two opposite strategies work to mark the spirits: either to monopolize all the space Donald Trump way by ranting polemic on polemic, or on the contrary to fade so that the voters project on your silence their words and their desires. “The absent or undeclared candidate is driven by everyone’s fantasies. He is sure to meet expectations, since each voter can make him say what he wants to hear, ”continues the expert. The consultant takes the example of Marine Le Pen: “After the debacle of the debate between the two rounds of 2017, the candidate was forgotten and spoke very little, which allowed her to rise in the polls slowly but surely. »
lost illusions
It would be all the drama of the formalization of the candidacy: the politician would be forced to speak, showing that his program does not correspond to each expectation. “As soon as we present ourselves or even act as a future candidate, another game begins, much more difficult, warns Bruno Cautrès. We will be much more dissected, analyzed, commented on, each word will have to be carefully weighed, each statement quantified, each project explained. The risk of blunder or misinterpretation is much greater. »
But obviously, the posture of the absent and of silence cannot last forever either. “At some point, when the deadline is approaching, you have to position yourself and get out of the woods,” says Véronique Reille Soult. Especially since over time, silence can become treacherous. “If when a politician speaks little, he can fuel fantasies in his direction, we can also make him say things that are negative or counterproductive for his candidacy”, continues the specialist.
In the realm of controversy, silence is king
Becoming a candidate also means having to get your hands dirty in a 2022 campaign, judged for the moment by some flush with the daisies. Ad hominem attack, constant search for the controversy of the day and the shocking little phrase, more or less dubious remarks on the coronavirus, “the campaign is clearly struggling to take off on the merits, and each declared candidate risks getting bogged down in this slump “, warns the teacher at Science Po. On the contrary, not to embark on it, it is necessarily to be above the fray, more noble, but also more attractive candidate”, according to Véronique Reille Soult.
The proof is that some politicians are never more popular than once they have left office. Bruno Cautrès quotes in particular Nicolas Sarkozy or Edouard Philippe. Absentees noticed, in opposition to candidates present very little liked.