At the World Economic Forum in Davos, the focus is particularly on geopolitics – it’s about the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Financial professionals are skeptical as to whether Davos can live up to its demands this time.
When motorcades move through a small Swiss mountain village and hotel prices explode, then it’s that time again: the World Economic Forum in Davos begins. In view of wars and global uncertainties, this year’s meeting will definitely not be a feel-good date for politicians and business leaders.
The list of challenges is long, explains Martin Lück, chief investment strategist at BlackRock: “The growth of the global economy is only at the level that we would describe as being on the threshold of recession. Global trade is even on the decline.” This must be a warning sign, especially in Europe, which depends so heavily on world trade.
More participants than ever before
In Davos there will therefore be a particularly large number of informal discussions behind closed doors. 2,800 participants are expected over the next five days, more than ever. Of course, people are talking about the war in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj also came to Davos. However, many experts do not expect concrete solutions or even a peace plan.
Many see globalization as a whole in danger. Crises are increasing around the world, there are anti-democratic currents in many countries – and the gap between rich and poor is also growing. In a survey by the World Economic Forum, leading decision-makers paint a bleak picture: almost two thirds fear turbulent, if not stormy, times in the next ten years. The consequences of climate change are mentioned again and again.
A minimum level of cooperation?
How can solutions or collaborations still be found? It’s about a minimum level of practical cooperation, said Saadia Zahidi, one of the directors of the World Economic Forum, to the TV channel Bloomberg: “Measures can be taken by national actors or by individuals.” You don’t necessarily have to wait for large-scale collaboration to take place.
One thing is clear: the demands in Davos are high. It’s about restoring trust. Many people on the financial markets are skeptical. “The motto sounds great. But restoring trust is not that easy,” says Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany. After all, the really big players who pose the greatest geopolitical risks are not there at all. “We won’t see Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin,” said Brzeski.
Controversial topic of artificial intelligence
But there are topics for which one hopes for more concrete solutions: for example in artificial intelligence (AI). The global community is still arguing about possible regulation and how to reconcile the opportunities and risks of AI. A small common denominator would be a start here too.
The Swiss mountain village of Davos once made world history. In 1992, Nelson Mandela and then South African President Frederik de Klerk shook hands. It was a symbol of the end of apartheid. The “Magic of Davos” is having a harder time than ever getting out from under the blanket of snow this year.
Constantin Röse, HR, tagesschau, January 15, 2024 4:35 p.m