Turkey’s elections on May 14 are like fighting a battered boss. Never since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in power has the opposition been so sure of victory. And at the same time you can tell how nervous she is: Erdoğan, the eternal president, the old tactician, could still turn it around. Might surprise the country, as he has often done.
Erdoğan should be beatable this time. Actually. Everything points to it. The hyperinflation, the bad crisis management after the earthquakes. The corruption behind the building permits that can be seen by anyone who wants to see them. The President seems weakened, both politically and personally. You can see it in his performances: he’s no longer the crowd whip he was a few years ago. His best days are behind him and he should be easy to beat. only by whom?
The opposition alliance met in Ankara on Thursday to name a name after months of uncertainty – at least that was the plan. It was later said that the name would be determined today, but would not be revealed until the election date was officially confirmed. The electoral commission has to do this by March 10th. A formality after Erdoğan set the date.
The opponent unites the alliance
The alliance consists of six parties led by the secular CHP. The second largest party is the nationalist IYI, which split from the ultra-right MHP – which is allied with Erdoğan – in protest against Erdoğan’s presidential system. There are also smaller conservative parties such as that of former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. He too has fallen out with Erdoğan. That’s what unites the alliance: the enemy.
The question remains as to who should run against the President. CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroğlu is still the most likely candidate. After the earthquake he cut a strong figure, Erdoğan criticized massively. However, Kilicdaroğlu has a few weaknesses, he is 74 years old and has not won a single election in his 13 years as opposition leader. He is not one to mobilize the masses. Not a strong “lider”, as the Turks say, i.e. not a leader. He mostly looked pale next to Erdoğan.
Meral Akşener, leader of the IYI party, harbors antipathy towards Kilicdaroğlu. He is to the left of the right base of their IYI party. Akşener also believes that other candidates would have better chances, such as Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, or his Istanbul counterpart, Ekrem Imamoğlu. Both are CHP men like Kilicdaroğlu, both more popular than the party leader. Imamoğlu, sentenced to a political ban, is at risk of not being allowed to compete at all. The appeal process is ongoing. Yavaş, on the other hand, belongs to the nationalist wing of the CHP and would therefore be difficult for Kurdish voters.
Ultimately, the conflicts in Turkish society, which intensified during the Erdoğan years, are reflected in the opposition. The Kurdish-dominated HDP announced that it would support Kilicdaroğlu or Imamoğlu – but would nominate its own candidate in the case of Mansur Yavaş. However, in the run-off election, the candidate of the alliance of six is sure of the votes of everyone who wants to get rid of Erdoğan. At least since the earthquake, that’s the majority.
Ekrem Imamoğlu, the head of Istanbul, put it this way: “No matter what the candidate’s name, we will make him president.”