The last nuclear power plants go off the grid: what the end of nuclear power means

The last three nuclear power plants in Germany will be shut down at the weekend. What consequences does this have for the power supply? Is there an impact on electricity prices? The most important questions and answers.

How much electricity did the nuclear power plants last produce?

On Saturday, the three remaining nuclear power plants in Germany – Isar 2 in Bavaria, Emsland in Lower Saxony and Neckarwestheim 2 in Baden-Württemberg – are to go off the grid for good. They produce a lot of electricity until the end. For example, RWE’s Emsland power plant in Lingen, Lower Saxony, will generate around two billion kilowatt hours by April 15 this year alone, according to the company. “That corresponds to the annual electricity requirements of around 500,000 households,” says a spokesman.

After switching off, this current is no longer available. According to EnBW, the Neckarwestheim 2 plant is also said to have produced up to 1.7 billion kilowatt hours of electricity in the last few weeks after the nuclear phase-out. The Isar 2 power plant, on the other hand, produces around 11 billion kilowatt hours of electricity every year, and thus almost twelve percent of all Bavarian electricity.

Is the security of supply at risk?

The Federal Network Agency gives a clear answer to this question: “No”, it says decisively there. There is sufficient guaranteed power plant capacity available from other plants to cover the demand for electricity even after the nuclear power plants have been shut down. From the point of view of the Federal Ministry of Economics, the security of supply is still guaranteed. The private network operator Amprion also confirmed on Thursday that there is no increased risk of a power failure. There is sufficient reserve capacity for power generation.

Andreas Loechel, environmental and resource economist at the Ruhr University Bochum, told opposite tagesschau24that you “don’t have to worry”. “The lights won’t go out.” However, it is clear that the situation will worsen due to the shutdown of the power plants.

What did the continued operation until mid-April bring?

A rather manageable contribution. According to the industry association BDEW, nuclear energy accounted for four percent of electricity generation in Germany in January and February – a third less than in 2022 as a whole. Manuel Frondel from the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Essen said that continued operation was helpful in that than that large numbers of French nuclear power plants are still not connected to the grid.

“So the electricity supply in Europe was lower than usual in winter, and on the other hand demand is particularly high in winter, not least because many households in France heat with electricity.” The continued operation of German nuclear power plants not only contributed to the security of supply, but also helped that expensive natural gas power plants were used less. This had a dampening effect on electricity prices. Overall, the effects of continued operation were manageable, but by no means negligible.

How sensible would it have been to operate until the end of 2023?

From the point of view of Mirko Schlossarczyk from the consulting company Enervis, the price effect would have been very manageable if the term had been extended until the end of the year. The wholesale electricity price in 2023 would have been three euros lower per megawatt hour on average over the year. “For household customers, that would be a price that is 0.3 cents lower per kilowatt hour, a drop of not even one percent.”

How will the exit affect electricity prices?

“The market players have already adjusted to the new situation. Electricity is already being traded for the coming weeks and months and there are no signs of price increases on the markets,” says energy market expert Christina Wallraf from the North Rhine-Westphalia consumer advice center.

The comparison portal Verivox does not expect any concrete effects on electricity prices for household customers in the short term. “In the medium to long term, the shutdown could already have an impact, since nuclear power will take cheap electricity capacities out of the market, which will have to be replaced, especially in times of high demand,” says energy expert Thorsten Storck. “Here it will depend on how quickly the expansion of renewables progresses and how well the missing capacities can be compensated for.”

Business associations, on the other hand, are more concerned about the end of nuclear power in Germany. Markus Jerger, board member of the BVMW association for small and medium-sized enterprises, told the Funke newspapers that nuclear power had been relatively cheap and the most secure supply. Germany currently has the highest energy prices in the world. “And that’s why some industries are on their knees.”

How are electricity prices going?

According to the consumer advice center, the electricity prices for household customers who want to conclude a new tariff have fallen significantly. “Currently, there are electricity tariffs from around 32 cents per kilowatt hour plus the basic price,” says Wallraf. For the coming months, she expects further relaxation: “More providers will advertise for customers with prices slightly above the 30 cent mark.” For existing customers, however, the tariffs are still particularly high – according to the comparison portal Verivox at 44.4 cents per kilowatt hour.

The comparison portal Check24 also sees “continued positive developments in electricity prices”. After the end of winter, households can expect low prices, especially from alternative providers, says Energy Managing Director Steffen Suttner. “However, the development remains dependent on global political events and the filling levels of the gas storage tanks.”

Energy expert Loechel, on the other hand, has not yet given the all-clear for the development of electricity prices in the coming years. He expects electricity prices to be over 10 cents per kilowatt hour next year and the year after that – well above the pre-war level.

What do consumer advocates advise?

According to the NRW consumer center, many households are currently paying “very high prices” that are beyond 40 or even 50 cents per kilowatt hour. Wallraf therefore recommends changing as soon as possible if you can cancel your contract now. Tariffs from a municipal utility could also be an option, especially for customers who had had bad experiences with discounters during the energy crisis.

Who will take over the production of the three systems?

In the short term, market events on the spot markets decide which power plants actually produce electricity, says a spokesman for the network agency. “In each case, the cheapest, currently available generation technologies are used first. In the long term, depending on their procurement strategy, dealers and suppliers have long stocked up on sufficient electricity for the coming months and years.”

So are there no problems to be expected?

Expert Christian Rehtanz does not believe that security of supply will be at risk, at least for the next few months. Coal-fired power plants were brought back onto the market, says the professor for energy systems and energy management at the TU Dortmund. “This means that around seven gigawatts of additional power plant capacity are now available to the market,” says Enervis expert Schlossarczyk. In addition, capacities in the transmission network have been expanded and can be used more efficiently. Because the price of gas has fallen sharply, gas-fired power plants could increasingly be used to generate electricity.

How will nuclear energy be replaced?

After the nuclear phase-out, the federal government is also aiming to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2030. “This means we are getting out of important pillars for secure electricity generation, i.e. power plants that deliver when wind and sun are not available,” says Timm Kehler from the industry association Zukunft Gas. In addition to renewable energies, hydrogen-capable gas power plants would have to be built as quickly as possible and other, flexibly controllable capacities such as electricity storage would have to be made available.

With regard to the coal phase-out, RWI expert Frondel says that additional natural gas power plants should have been built long ago. “Germany is increasingly living on the principle of hope and trusts that the neighboring countries will compensate for the lost capacities. However, this is only possible to a limited extent due to limited cross-border network capacities.”