Barely had a success in the Senate, the government of Elisabeth Borne is hunting for the votes of the deputies who should in turn decide on the highly contested pension reform in the middle of next week, in the hope of avoiding a recourse to 49.3. The Prime Minister rose to the front line as soon as the vote of the Senate was acquired late Saturday evening by 195 votes against 112. She promised to now put all her “energy” for “that this text be voted on”.
“There is a majority in Parliament” to vote for the reform, wants to believe Elisabeth Borne, on the edge of a much tighter ballot which is announced, probably Thursday, in the National Assembly. “We don’t put ourselves at all in the perspective of 49.3”, assures his entourage. The government has taken out its calculator and hopes to obtain enough votes from the Republicans, who are nevertheless divided, in order to avoid recourse to this constitutional tool perceived as authoritarian, which allows the adoption of a text without a vote but exposes the executive to a motion of censure.
“The Coué method”
After three days of respite, parliamentary debates will resume on Wednesday, with the convening of a joint committee (CMP). In this meeting, seven deputies and seven senators will seek to agree on a compromise text. The government is not present there but it can pull the strings. If an agreement is reached, the text will go to the Senate again on Thursday for a final validation and then, probably in immense suspense, to the National Assembly.
According to a source within the executive, Matignon should bring together the parliamentarians concerned on Monday to prepare for the conclave, where the macronists and the right are in the majority. Saying that there is a majority in Parliament is “the Coué method”, said the leader of the Socialist senators, Patrick Kanner, on RMC. He pointed out that 50 votes had been missed by the right and the centrist group in the Senate to vote for the reform, “a not insignificant alert”, according to him, which could push the government to ensure the blow by using article 49.3 of the constitution .
A dozen votes missing in the majority?
“The government must do everything not to use it, but if in the end there is a problem, it will have to use it”, advised the boss of senators LR Bruno Retailleau at the Grand rendez-vous Europe 1 /The echoes/CNews. If the government resorts to it in the Assembly, after having used the accelerated procedure of the single vote in the Senate, “this poses a problem of legitimacy” and could bring France into “great anger”, warns Patrick Kanner. Given the “unprecedented” level of demonstrations against the reform, “it would be a form of democratic vice”, abounds the boss of the CFDT Laurent Berger.
The executive puts all its hopes in Les Républicains, however particularly divided in the Assembly and where the slingers, including the deputy Aurélien Pradié, play the spoilsports. At this stage, between 30 and 35 LR deputies plan to vote for the text, around fifteen to oppose it, and around ten to abstain, according to an internal source. The agreement is not good either between the groups of the majority, Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons. According to the latest scores, a dozen or so deputies from the three groups could opt for abstention. In the end, “it can be played with two or three votes, in one direction or another”, slips a parliamentarian.