The Bavarian Business Association (VBW) does not expect any growth this year. “The economy in Bavaria is treading water,” said President Wolfram Hatz on Tuesday at the presentation of the half-yearly VBW index in Munich.
The forecast is therefore somewhat more positive than at the turn of the year. At that time, experts expected gross domestic product to fall by 0.3 percent in 2023. The overall index, which is made up of the current situation and expectations for growth and employment in Bavaria, fell from 103 to 101 points in autumn. The index ranges from zero to 200. The average since calculations began in 2004 is 115 points.
“We will be able to avoid a recession, but an upswing is not in sight,” said Hatz. The expectations for the business situation improved from 70 to 89 points. “The prospects for companies in Bavaria are no longer as pessimistic as they were in autumn,” said Hatz. However, there can be no question of genuine confidence. “In order for us to gain momentum again, at least in the medium term, we have to invest in our location and our competitiveness now.”
The assessment of the current economic situation fell by one point to 108 points. As in the previous year, braking factors include high energy prices, inflation and a shortage of skilled workers and workers. The index for the employment situation deteriorated from 122 to 102 points. But that was solely due to the higher unemployment, which in turn only rose because of the statistical recording of Ukrainian refugees, said Hatz. The forecast index fell from 110 to 106 points.