One variant is chasing another… This Wednesday, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimated that the Delta variant should represent 90% of new cases of Covid-19 in the European Union by the end August. Knowing that for the moment, the Alpha variant (formerly called “British”) remains in the majority in this area.
An evolution that the United Kingdom is experiencing. Since its appearance on the other side of the Channel, the Delta variant has indeed quickly replaced its predecessor, to represent today almost all (more than 90%) of the cases listed, despite a vaccination campaign. massive.
British strategy undermined by the Delta variant
Several months ago, some had cried treason, selfishness. Still, the agreement Boris Johnson made with Oxford to reserve part of the doses of AstraZeneca had proved to be fruitful. While France and many other countries struggled to offer doses to their inhabitants, the United Kingdom was vaccinating hard. Faced with the Alpha variant, the government had opted for a primary vaccination strategy, by injecting a first dose to as many people as possible. For this, the time between two doses had even been extended. A choice that may have paid off until the arrival of the new variant. “Here, the primary vaccination with AstraZeneca is only 30% effective, that is to say not much”, explains Anne Sénéquier, researcher and member of IRIS. Even if a large part of the population has already been bitten once (almost 80% in the United Kingdom), “the risks of contamination remain high”.
At the same time as the deconfinement
Laurent Chambaud, doctor and director of the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health (EHESP), validates this observation: “Without complete vaccination, the risk is always there, especially with the new variant. “Indeed, the Delta would be much more contagious than the previous ones, according to a Eurosurveillance study published in June. The director of the EHESP cites another reason for the spread of the newcomer: “The United Kingdom has not targeted populations at risk as France has been able to do, the elderly, frail and nursing staff. They opened up the vaccination to everyone from the start. “
The rapid expansion of the Delta variant is also a question of timing. Appeared in the middle of spring, it coincided with the deconfinement in England. “The confinement was very strict there, much more than in France. For three and a half months, the residents barely got out at all. There was therefore a huge relaxation in vigilance, barrier gestures… ”, explains Anne Sénéquier.
A similar situation to come to France?
Deconfinement is what the French have been going through gradually for several weeks. Opening of restaurants and theaters, the mask that falls outside… For Anne Sénéquier, we must use the British example to remain vigilant: “Summer is coming, and with it, a little more lightness. But we must not forget the important measures, especially with the Delta. “
The announcement of the ECDC shows it, the new variant should become the majority, even in France: “There is no reason that we escape it”, explains Laurent Chambaud. The number of cases is increasing rapidly: the government spokesman, Gabriel Attal, thus advanced this Wednesday the figure of 9 to 10% of the cases listed in France, against only 2 to 4% last week. The two scientists are not alarmist, but insist on the importance of being vaccinated, and quickly: “AstraZeneca or Pfizer, it is 92 to 96% of effectiveness against the risks of hospitalization. But you have to do it completely, with the two doses, ”explains Laurent Chambaud.
Total international solidarity
As long as collective immunity is not reached – with “at least 80 to 85% of the vaccinated population” – the risks will be present, in particular of seeing a new variant, even more virulent, appear, insists Anne Sénéquier. Which raises another strategy to be adopted as soon as possible: the sharing of vaccines. According to her, as long as the virus can circulate in the world, as is currently the case, a variant will be able to challenge the immunity provided by vaccines.
“Prioritizing vaccines to us poses a risk from other parts of the world. We are at more than three billion doses used in the world. With such a quantity, we could have protected vulnerable people, health workers, all over the world. “A finding shared by Laurent Chambaud who, faced with such an epidemic, advocates total international solidarity:” It exists in the scientific field, exchanges are permanent between countries. Now it is the turn of governments and finance to do the same. “