It had not yet started and was already a source of controversy, between a embarrassing sponsorship and criticism from environmental activists. But the COP27 officially opened this Sunday in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt to try to breathe new life into the fight against global warming and its impacts. “Egypt will spare no effort,” said Foreign Minister Sameh Choukri, who chairs COP27.
This 27th UN climate conference (COP27) will bring together some 200 countries for two weeks, at the bedside of a planet hit by disasters: historic floods in Pakistan, repeated heat waves in Europe, hurricanes, fires, droughts… The fight for the climate is a “question of life or death, for our security today and for our survival tomorrow”, UN boss Antonio Guterres recently insisted.
Towards a warming of +2.8°C?
The conference “must lay the foundations for faster and braver climate action, now and in this decade that will decide whether the climate fight is won or lost”, he warned. Greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 45% by 2030 to have a chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era, the most ambitious objective of the agreement of Paris.
But the current commitments of the signatory states, if they were finally respected, would lead to an increase of 5 to 10%, putting the world on a trajectory of at best 2.4°C by the end of the century. Far from respecting the main objective of the Paris agreement of less than 2°C compared to the time when humans began to burn fossil fuels (coal, oil or gas) responsible for global warming on a large scale. With current policies, a catastrophic +2.8°C is even looming.
The objective of 1.5 ° C not tenable for the UN
“Pitifully not up to the task”, lambasted Antonio Guterres, who deplores that the climate has been relegated to the background by the Covid epidemic, the war in Ukraine, the economic, energy and food crises. “There have been perilous times before,” such as the United States’ exit from the Paris agreement under the presidency of Donald Trump, notes Alden Meyer, of the E3G think tank. But “I’ve never seen anything like it,” he adds, describing a “perfect storm.”
In this context, despite the commitments made at COP26, only around twenty countries have raised their targets, and the UN sees “no credible way” to meet the 1.5°C target. More than 120 heads of state and government are expected on Monday and Tuesday for a summit that is supposed to give impetus to these two weeks of negotiations. Without Chinese President Xi Jinping or American Joe Biden, who will quickly move on to the COP on November 11.
Financing climate damage officially on the agenda
While cooperation is crucial between the two main global emitters of greenhouse gases with strained relations, they could however meet in Bali the following week on the sidelines of the G20. A G20 responsible for 80% of global emissions but whose richest members are accused of not assuming their responsibilities in terms of ambition and aid to developing countries. The resentment of the poorest countries, not responsible for global warming but on the front line of its impacts, will also be at the heart of COP27.
The promise of the countries of the North to increase to 100 billion dollars per year from 2020 their aid to the countries of the South to reduce their emissions and prepare for the impacts has still not been kept. The financing of reparations related to “climate damage” has also been put on the agenda, despite the reluctance of developed countries. “The success or failure of COP27 will be judged on an agreement on this loss and damage financing facility,” warned Munir Akram, Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN and chairman of the G77 + China, which represents more than 130 emerging and poor countries.
Private sector commitments will also be in the spotlight with the publication of the report of the UN group of experts responsible for developing standards to assess the carbon neutrality objectives of companies, cities, regions or investors. Because “our world can no longer afford greenwashing, pretense and latecomers”, stressed Antonio Guterres. “We need to be clear, as difficult as the current moment is, inaction is tantamount to myopia and can only delay climate catastrophe,” said the outgoing chair of the previous COP in Glasgow, Alok Sharma.