Emmanuel Macron had the announcement during his wishes to the military in January. This is confirmed: the budget of the French armies will indeed be subject to an unprecedented increase, until at least 2030. The draft Military Programming Law (LPM) 2024-2030, presented Tuesday in the Council of Ministers, provides for annual increases of 3 to 4 billion euros, against the backdrop of the return of war in Europe. “This LPM acts as an unprecedented increase in the defense budget” to reach 69 billion euros in 2030 against 32 billion euros in 2017, argues the entourage of Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who however admits having prioritized certain armament programs to the detriment of others.
The envelope devoted to the armed forces will amount to 413 billion euros over seven years, including 13 billion in extra-budgetary revenue which will be used in particular to finance military aid to Ukraine. A significant effort which is justified by “the very rapid deterioration of the geopolitical context” marked by the war in Ukraine, but also “the appearance of many technological leaps which have a cost”, explains the ministry.
More than 4 billion euros increase from 2028
The army budget will increase by 3.1 billion euros in 2024 then by 3 billion per year from 2025 to 2027, before “steps” of 4.3 billion per year from 2028, i.e. beyond the five-year term in progress. A “floor trajectory” to which “additions may need to be provided” depending on the threat, underlines the ministry, which hopes for the adoption of the LPM by Parliament before July 14.
Sébastien Lecornu also wishes to request an additional expenditure of 1.5 billion euros in 2023, in addition to an annual budget of 43.9 billion. Objective: to deal with “operational emergencies”, particularly in terms of drones and the fight against drones, one of the weaknesses of the French military system revealed by Ukraine, but also to cushion the effects of inflation. The rise in prices indeed cuts mathematically into the increase in the defense budget. Its effect is estimated at thirty billion euros over seven years, recognizes the ministry. And despite a marked increase in resources, not all the planned needs will be met.
Projects still revised downwards
The Scorpion program to renew the armored component of the Army with vehicles connected to each other will bear the brunt of this, with “around a hundred fewer Jaguars” in 2030 out of the 300 initially planned and “ a few hundred” of Griffon and Serval armored vehicles also shifted post-2030, in return for extending the life of the VABs and AMX-10RCs, a few dozen of which have been promised to Ukraine.
Similarly, the deliveries of 42 Rafale combat aircraft planned between 2027 and 2030 are stretched until 2032. In 2030, the Air Force will have 137 Rafale against an initial target of 185. And the Navy will not be able to count in 2030 only on three of the five defense and intervention frigates. Deliveries of A400M transport aircraft, essential for deploying resources to the Pacific zone, will be accelerated, from 20 aircraft currently to 35 in 2030, but the final objective of 50 aircraft remains under discussion.
On the other hand, the programs linked to nuclear deterrence, a major item of expenditure, or the timetable for the next generation aircraft carrier, which will join the Charles-De-Gaulle by 2038, are preserved. The annual provision to finance the external operations is set at 800 million euros.
Space and artillery efforts
In the space field marked by growing conflict, Paris will finance studies for the next generation of Celeste intelligence satellites of electromagnetic origin and the successor to the Yoda patrol satellite program, intended to keep spacecraft that are too curious at a distance from French satellites. The third Syracuse IV communication satellite, on the other hand, has been abandoned in favor of a constellation whose contours have yet to be defined.
As a result of the lessons learned in Ukraine, Paris also wants to increase its effort on ammunition and artillery with Caesar cannons and the replacement in 2027 of unitary rocket launchers (LRU) by American Himars rocket launchers or a European solution, “ this subject is not decided”, according to the ministry.