The British Year of Chaos: Tory misery and no end

Three prime ministers, a homegrown recession, tough policy U-turns – the Brits have had a chaotic year. But even under the relatively rational Prime Minister Sunak, they still face difficult times.

When the Queen appointed Liz Truss as the new prime minister at her Scottish country estate in early September, she may have thought that the worst was over for the time being with the end of Boris Johnson after eight chaotic months.

After she herself said goodbye to this world only a few days later, die-hard royalists should now be relieved that Elizabeth II did not have to live to see the rest of this year. Because everything was to get worse – and at a breathtaking pace.

Sunak has no solutions either

The spectacular failure of Truss just 31 days after the funeral of the longest reigning monarch in British history set in motion a cascade of catastrophes large and small. The real causes of this, however, go back much further and have their roots in a Tory party that has been completely exhausted and directionless as a result of long-term domestic feuds.

With Rishi Sunak, the third prime minister in just one year, a much more rational person is now at the helm of the government. However, he has no solutions for the current economic and political problems that are piling up after Brexit.

Just one example: since mid-December, the island has experienced the largest wave of strikes since the 1980s. Rail workers, postmen and even nurses and emergency services workers are protesting a government that has pushed the country into a recession that is essentially homegrown.

Premier of U-turns

Sunak has been caught between all stools since he took over at Downing Street at the end of October. Markets plummeted after Truss announced £45 billion in tax cuts, especially for higher earners, without even remotely financing it. And so Sunak had no choice but to announce a 180-degree turnaround immediately after taking office.

Instead of tax gifts, he is now planning tax increases and an additional austerity package of more than 55 billion, which will primarily affect public services. A policy more akin to David Cameron’s austerity policies, and for which the Tories have essentially no mandate.

The last actually elected prime minister of the conservative Tories, Boris Johnson, came to power in 2019 with a promise to give the impoverished north a financial boost in particular: Sunak no longer mentions that at all. But he has no choice either – the markets have been so unsettled since the Truss adventure that his scope for fulfilling the promises of his predecessors is extremely limited.

Hardly any more cuts

With this course, however, he has several problems at once. For one, his fiscal policy shift is making the Tory right nervous, who are categorically opposed to higher taxes to consolidate public finances. This further weakens Sunak’s already precarious position within the party.

On the other hand, there is nothing left on the island that can be reduced. Public services and the national health system have been so severely slashed for years that any further financial cuts in the midst of massive inflation endanger them to their core. The current strikes make that more than clear.

Sunak’s current attempt to bring the unions to their knees is unlikely to be sustained if the industrial dispute escalates further. After various abrupt course changes in the past few weeks, another turnaround is imminent, which is unlikely to strengthen Sunak politically.

Don’t mention the Brexit

And then there is Brexit. The independent Institute for Tax Estimates (OBR) recently calculated that leaving the EU is already costing the British economy four percent of its gross national product, and the trend is rising. So there can be no question of a Brexit dividend.

In the short and medium term, a constructive approach to the EU would be the quickest way to at least partially mitigate the damage that Brexit has done to the British economy. Here, too, the prime minister finds himself still in the stranglehold of his party, for which any rapprochement with the EU, no matter how small, remains a mortal sin.

Tories down

In addition, Conservative poll numbers have not really recovered since Sunak took office. If new elections were held now, the Tories would be all but wiped out in most parts of the country. That also weakens Sunak’s ability to discipline the party.

Thirteen Tory MPs have already announced that they will resign before the next election, while many others have given up and are already looking for new jobs. When in doubt, they can vote as they wish in Parliament – faction pressure or not.

Sunak could hold out until the next elections, mainly because nobody in his party wants to be wiped off the scene right now. However, if the British permacrisis escalates further next year, that cannot be ruled out either.

Charles’ coronation rare cause for celebration

Compared to the muddled situation in Downing Street, the change of power in the palace, only a few hundred meters away as the crow flies, was comparatively gentle and successful. Even Harry and Meghan’s Netflix antics haven’t been able to significantly shake general approval of the new king, Charles III.

His coronation in May is likely to be one of the few moments next year when Britons will have another reason to celebrate. You should use it. Because otherwise the island will continue to face difficult times.