Due to the renewed epidemic and the persistent supply difficulties that risked causing a slowdown in activity at the start of the year, the Banque de France very slightly lowered its growth forecast for the French economy for 2022, this Sunday, anticipating an increase of 3.6%, against 3.7% previously.
Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) remains “solid”, however, with a forecast raised to + 2.2% for 2023 (instead of + 1.9% previously), estimates the French central bank in its new macroeconomic projections. It predicts that France will regain by 2024 “a pace close” to its pre-crisis level, with growth of around 1.4%.
Cautious forecasts
This return to the trend before the epidemic is a sign that “the crisis has left no scar in terms of the level of production and potential production”, greeted Olivier Garnier, CEO of the Banque de France at the time. of a press conference. He sees the effect of massive public support for investment deployed via the recovery plan and the France 2030 investment plan, as well as the “dynamism of the labor market”.
These forecasts are however a little more cautious than those of the government, which at this stage still expects growth of 4% in 2022, despite the epidemic resurgence and the appearance of the Omicron variant. The Banque de France is also presenting an alternative scenario, in the event of the imposition of additional restrictions in the first half of 2022, which would lead to weaker growth next year (around 2.2%), but which would catch up in 2023. (+ 3.5%).
Two phases of inflation
In its central scenario, which forecasts growth of 6.7% in 2021, it estimates that growth will be driven next year “by the rebound in all components of domestic demand”, namely household consumption, with a gradual decline in the savings surplus accumulated during the crisis, as well as investment, in particular that of companies, thanks to the stabilization of their margins. Conversely, the contribution of foreign trade “will not recover in 2022”, still lagging behind in certain sectors.
This growth would also translate into an increase in employment, with an unemployment rate around 7.9% in 2022, and purchasing power, supported by wage increases. As for inflation, which has been on the rise in recent months, after peaking at the end of 2021, the Banque de France has seen two successive phases: first, the maintenance of a significant rise in prices during 2022, with an average rate of 2.5% next year, before a decline around 1.5% in 2024, the level observed before the financial crisis of 2008.