Press
NATO is preparing for an election victory for Donald Trump. New options can be considered. Also the ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia?
Brussels – It’s still an idea that no one is officially talking about: trading Ukrainian territories under Russian control for the country’s security. This could apparently have been discussed behind closed doors for a long time – if US President Joe Biden is not re-elected, such an agreement is even considered likely by some.
“Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our goal at the summit is to build a bridge to this membership,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made clear on Thursday (April 4) in Brussels. After all, the Foreign Minister continued, support for the country among the alliance member states remains “rock solid”. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg found similar words: “The allies have made it clear that Ukraine will become a member of NATO and we must ensure that this is something we comply with.”
Fear of Trump’s election victory: NATO’s new strategy to end the Ukraine war?
While some – like the US news portal Politico – see these words as nothing more than a refreshment of lukewarm promises from the previous year, others suspect much more to it. The Italian newspaper La Republica According to him, it is no coincidence that Blinken and Stoltenberg are choosing such words right now. The paper senses a hint of one new strategy to end the war in Ukrainenamely to give up Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees and the country’s immediate accession to NATO.
One reason for this is that such a deal is “viewed by many experts as one of the possible solutions to ending the war.” Although it is not a politically discussed option at the moment, the option is actually on the table. A second, more concrete point is the fear of a Trump election victory and its consequences. Trump has repeatedly assured that if he returns as “commander in chief,” he will quickly resolve the dispute between Moscow and Kiev. Loud La Republica an exchange of territories would be the appropriate move to be remembered as the one who made peace possible.
All occupied territories were left to the Kremlin – but military aid was still needed for Kiev
According to the newspaper, such a plan could include handing over all occupied territories – Crimea and the other four regions conquered in recent years – to the Kremlin. The remaining part of Ukraine would eventually be included in NATO. In a final step, the new NATO eastern border would be fortified and upgraded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj’s request to this effect was rejected at the summit in Vilnius a year ago in order to prevent a direct war with Moscow. However, the scenario could now change; especially if Trump moves back into the White House.
What requirements does a country have to meet to be admitted to NATO?
NATO has five requirements that candidates for membership must at least meet:
1. They must uphold democracy, including tolerating diversity.
2. They must make progress towards a market economy.
3. Your armed forces must be under firm civilian control.
4. They must be good neighbors and respect sovereignty outside their borders.
5. They must work towards compatibility with NATO forces.
These criteria are not a checklist that automatically leads to NATO membership.
Furthermore, new members must be invited through a consensus of the current members. The decisive factor for inviting new members is whether “their admission into NATO will strengthen the Alliance and promote the fundamental goal of NATO enlargement, namely increasing security and stability throughout Europe.”
Nevertheless, it is unlikely that such negotiations will take place before the presidential election in the USA. All actors in the Ukraine war are like this La Republica, aware that 2025 will be the year of negotiations, while 2024 will still be spent on the battlefield. Vladimir Putin will therefore try to conquer as much territory as possible in order to be able to enter such negotiations in a stronger position. It is crucial that Ukraine loses as few territories as possible this year. To achieve this, Western aid to Kiev needs to be accelerated and increased.
“Could make the situation even worse”: Would the people of Ukraine be ready to take the step?
In principle, NATO membership for Ukraine would be possible if all NATO members agreed – at least as long as such a step increases “security and stability throughout Europe,” as NATO says. But opinions differ on this. Joshua Shifrinson, a professor of international politics who works for the US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, fears that such a move could “further inflame Russian nationalism and imperialism.” The NATO expansions are partly responsible for these currents within the country; Further NATO expansion to include Ukraine promises to “exacerbate the situation,” said Shifrinson.
A completely different reason against such a thing La Republica The plan raised is Ukraine itself. Kiev continues to demand the return of all territories that Russia has illegally annexed and conquered since 2014, as well as financial compensation from Moscow – without any trace of willingness to negotiate. Also the People in the country first have to be ready for itto engage in such barter. According to a December survey, the proportion of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to Russia in return for peace has nearly doubled in the last seven months – although that was still only 19 percent of respondents. (tpn)