The threat remains high. Twenty-one Chinese military planes have been detected around the island of Taiwan since 8:15 a.m. local time (2:15 a.m. in France), the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense announced on Saturday, a month before the inauguration of President-elect Lai Ching-te. “Seventeen planes (out of twenty-one) crossed the median line” of the Taiwan Strait, the ministry said in a statement, an unofficial demarcation between China and Taiwan that the former does not recognize.
Taiwan’s armed forces “observe these activities using surveillance systems and have deployed appropriate means to respond accordingly.” Taiwan is an autonomous island that Beijing claims as part of its territory and which it wants to seize one day, by force if necessary.
Firmness line
The increase in incursions by Chinese aircraft is part of what experts call the “gray zone” strategy, that is to say actions of intimidation which do not go as far as acts of war against strictly speaking. These actions have intensified since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen, who considers Taiwan to be de facto “already independent,” a red line for Beijing.
For some experts, the question is not “if” China will launch military action against Taiwan, but “when.” Tsai Ing-wen must give up her place on May 20 to the current vice-president, Lai Ching-te, a member of the Progressive Democratic Party like her. Winner of the presidential election of January 13, he is also in favor of a firm line against Beijing.