This is a sign that Emmanuel Macron’s speech hit the mark, note observers of the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin brandishes, for the umpteenth time since the start of his “special operation” launched on February 24, 2022, the nuclear threat. In response to “threats” from Western leaders towards Moscow, according to the Ministry of Defense, and in particular the idea mentioned by the French president of sending troops to support Kiev, the Russian president ordered the holding of nuclear exercises ” in the near future “.
“A series of measures will be taken to train in the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons,” the Defense Ministry added in a statement. These weapons, also called tactical nuclear weapons, are designed for use on the battlefield and can be launched by missiles. What are the differences with strategic nuclear weapons? 20 minutes make the point.
What are we talking about ?
It is therefore a new nuclear threat which was brandished by the Kremlin on Monday. These so-called tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons, “concern nuclear weapons, of relatively low power, at least the equivalent of a few thousand tons of explosives, and of relatively short range”, a few hundred kilometers, explains to 20 minutes Michel Goya, former colonel of the marine troops, historian and strategist. Thus, “the difference between what we call non-strategic and strategic is in particular a question of scope and power,” notes the specialist.
Concretely, these are missiles currently used to conventionally strike Ukraine, like the Iskander missiles, but equipped with nuclear warheads. The range of an Iskander missile is around 500 km, according to Le Figaro. “The weapons deployed for this exercise are announced in the southern sector, the Caucasus, so in reality it could only hit Ukraine,” analyzes Michel Goya.
Note that calling weapons “non-strategic” or “tactical” is an abuse of language. In reality, it is more a question of a very strategic or non-strategic weapon to qualify respectively the most powerful or the least powerful of nuclear weapons because “these are not tactical missiles, that would mean that we use them to gain a “battle is at the strategic level, to change the course of the war”, develops Michel Goya.
For what damage?
Even though they are the least powerful nuclear weapons, they remain nuclear with a destructive capacity roughly equivalent to that sent to Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. They represent several thousand tons of explosives. To get an idea: “The same conventionally equipped missile represents half a ton of explosives, so using just one of these nuclear weapons is like taking the thousands of missiles fired by the Russians since the start of the war and launched them on the same place, illustrates Michel Goya. It’s relatively destructive. »
In detail, the least powerful weapons are atomic, they use fission energy, while the most powerful are thermonuclear and use fusion energy. “The most powerful are capable of ravaging Paris or, conversely, completely destroying Moscow,” underlines the specialist.
What is the real risk of use in Ukraine?
As is clearly stated in the Russian statement, these exercises are a direct response to recent statements by Europeans David Cameron and Emmanuel Macron. Their posture is perceived on the Russian side as an escalation, so the Russians intend to “cut short this escalation by escalating themselves with a show of force, by causing fear”, analyzes Michel Goya. And to move forward: “we are in poker but nothing will happen. »
Our file on the war in Ukraine
Nuclear weapons are indeed not a weapon like any other. Its use “would break a taboo and arouse international indignation,” explains the former colonel of the marine troops. Only two scenarios could present an opportunity to cross this red line: “as a last resort in the event of great difficulty, if the front collapses, if the Russian army collapses”, but “currently this does not is not at all the case,” according to Michel Goya. Another possibility: If the Russians want to impose peace at all costs in a stuck situation on the front, they could make a demonstration shot to scare and force everyone to negotiate.