Syria’s rulers: Assad – the only winner of the earthquake

Thousands of dead, countless injured and millions homeless. The earthquake caused suffering and misery. In Syria, the only winner from the disaster seems to be ruler Assad.

Airplanes with aid deliveries seem to land in Aleppo every hour. At least that is the impression given to the viewers of Syrian state television. “As you can see here behind me, a plane from Algeria has just landed. There are humanitarian supplies on board. And a plane from Saudi Arabia also recently arrived,” says a reporter in a booth on the runway. “Here at Aleppo Airport, humanity really knows no bounds!”

Over the past few days, more than a dozen nations have sent aid to Aleppo, Damascus and Latakia – the areas controlled by the regime. These include states that – at least officially – have not had any contact with the Assad regime in recent years. A week after the earthquake, Bashar al-Assad received the Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates in Damascus. Shortly thereafter, the director of the World Health Organization and the UN emergency aid coordinator.

criticism of the UN

A difficult visit, finds Melani Cammett, a political scientist at Harvard University. “There is a lot of criticism of the UN and UN agencies for de facto underpinning the power of the Syrian regime,” says Cammett. “Of course they say that they are politically neutral – but of course any help that you bring in also ensures that the Syrian regime is confirmed.”

But the ruler Assad also seems to be able to exploit the aid that is being brought to the areas in the north-west occupied by insurgents. Bente Scheller, head of the Middle East department at the Heinrich Boell Foundation, is convinced that the tough discussion about more cross-border aid between Syria and Turkey has benefited him: “There shouldn’t have been any hesitation,” says Scheller. “But although international law would have allowed it, Assad was given the chance, cynically, until there were hardly any more survivors under the rubble – only then did he give the green light. There was no need to wait for his ok.”

Bombs, torture camps and chemical weapons

Since the beginning of the civil war in Syria – around twelve years ago – the ruler Assad and his allies in Iran and Russia have been trying to convince the world of their point of view. Barrel bombs in residential areas, attacks on schools and hospitals – either they were hostile militias or they were necessary means to effectively fight terrorists. Just like torture camps and – presumably – repeated attacks with chemical weapons.

According to observers, the latter in particular was a dubious turning point in the Syrian war. In 2012, then-US President Barack Obama threatened that if Assad used chemical weapons, he would cross a “red line,” which would have consequences. Intervention by the US military would therefore be inevitable.

Gradual normalization of the Assad regime

But although the organization Human Rights Watch counted more than 86 attacks with chemical weapons between 2013 and 2018 and attributed almost all of them to units of the regime, the US followed up on their announcement with no action. “If even such a massive breach of international norms as the use of chemical weapons goes unpunished, then of course it’s clear that in principle he has a clear path – he can do anything he wants,” said Scheller. That’s exactly how Assad lived it up without hiding it. For many observers, this was the first step towards normalization.

Even if the West did not intervene directly in the Syrian civil war, the USA and the EU, among others, introduced far-reaching sanctions in 2011 and 2012. They were intended to prevent the alleged war criminal Assad and his units from further human rights violations and were directed, among other things, against the arms trade with Syria, the financial and energy sector in the country and against specific people in the Syrian power apparatus.

Drug money disguised as donations?

The earthquake a week ago gave the regime the chance to demand that all sanctions be lifted again. Washington and Brussels rejected lifting the sanctions, but at least eased the flow of money for humanitarian purposes. That’s good for Syrian and international independent NGOs, who previously had to struggle with the fact that – if the transfers said ‘Syria’ – they might not go through,” says Scheller. “But it’s really a real gift for Assad! He has continued to expand his drug business – now such money could flow to Syria disguised as donations.”

According to UN estimates, around 5.3 million people in Syria have become homeless. But unlike in Turkey, direct help with reconstruction should not be that easy. The ownership of many buildings is unclear – much of what belongs to the opposition and opponents has been expropriated by the regime. According to Scheller, there are also reports of denominational expulsions. “Of course you are in danger here if you just go about rebuilding, supporting human rights violations and cementing them in the truest sense of the word.” You shouldn’t drop many hurdles in order to help quickly. “It is very important that these are adhered to all the more strictly.”

Italy has now become the first Western country to send aid to the Red Crescent. A relief organization under the direct control of the Assad regime. For Cammett, Assad’s normalization is already in full swing. “Global and regional governments are beginning to reconnect with Assad. Maybe not officially, but their interactions with the Syrian regime will cement Assad as the de facto ruler,” says the Harvard University political scientist.

It is a tightrope act that many Western governments are currently trying to master: helping local people without shaking hands with suspected war criminal Assad.