SWP expert on the Ukraine war: “Much more brutal and much more ruthless”

Russia has shown in the past that it is prepared to accept humanitarian catastrophes, says Claudia Major in the daily topics. However, they do not expect NATO to intervene in Ukraine.

Claudia Major, head of the security policy research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), fears that the Russian military’s deployment in Ukraine could become significantly more violent in the coming days. “If we now see in Ukraine how decisively Russia is proceeding, we have to be prepared for the fact that it will become much more brutal and much more ruthless in the coming days,” she said in an interview with the daily topics. Russia has already shown in Syria and Chechnya that it is willing to act without regard to the civilian population and civilian infrastructure and does not rule out the use of banned weapons such as cluster bombs. In this way, “knowingly humanitarian catastrophes” are accepted, according to Major.

But even if such an escalation should occur, the SWP expert does not believe that NATO will intervene in the war in Ukraine. The alliance “made it very clear that it sees itself as a defense alliance. This means that its main task is to protect its own allies.” The risk of a world war involving four nuclear powers is too great. Therefore, the Allies wanted to avoid direct intervention “at all costs”.

“There is no compromise”

Major believes that Russia is also not interested in direct confrontations with the West. So far, the Kremlin has made a distinction between NATO territory and non-NATO territory. At the same time, Russia is signaling that it sees the measures already taken by Western countries as a provocation. The country reacted to the economic sanctions imposed by preparing its nuclear arsenal. “Russia sees everything it wants to see as a provocation,” said the SWP expert.

Even if the Russian military defeats Ukraine, Major does not expect a quick resolution to the conflict. Ukraine will not give up its desire to remain a sovereign country. The Kremlin, meanwhile, has made it clear that it intends to turn Ukraine into a “vassal state.” “There is no compromise between these two goals,” said Major. This conflict cannot be resolved.