State elections in Saarland: who chose what and why?

The top candidates tipped the scales in the race between the CDU and SPD. But what were the main themes? And which voters made the change in Saarland? An analysis based on figures from infratest dimap.

The SPD victory in Saarland is a success for Anke Rehlinger. Half of the SPD voters state that they chose the Social Democrats primarily because of the top candidate – this is one of the highest values ​​ever achieved in a state election in Germany. More than two thirds of Saarlanders and Saarlanders are satisfied with their work in recent years. If the prime minister had been elected directly, 53 percent would have voted for her and only 29 percent for incumbent Tobias Hans from the CDU.

As Economics Minister, Rehlinger succeeded in expanding the profile of the Social Democrats. In all important policy areas, the SPD in Saarland is now the party that voters most often trust to come up with the best solutions – even in classic CDU areas of competence. A majority of 58 percent is satisfied with the work of the SPD in the grand coalition in Saarland – the work of the CDU in the government, on the other hand, is only rated positively by 38 percent. 57 percent want a state government under the leadership of the Social Democrats for the next five years.

In all age groups, the SPD rose to become the strongest force. What is particularly striking is that among voters over 60 years of age, she achieved a share of the vote of 49 percent – 19 percentage points more than in the 2017 election. One factor in this development may have been that the SPD explicitly formed a coalition with the Left Party before this election ruled out. 78 percent of those eligible to vote over the age of 65 expressly praise this decision.

Competence values ​​​​of the CDU fall dramatically

The strength of the SPD corresponds to the weakness of the CDU. This suffered to a considerable extent from Prime Minister Hans’ lack of popularity. Two thirds accuse him of having changed his corona course too often. Only 45 percent are satisfied with his work and just as few think that he understands what moves people in Saarland – a remarkably low value for an incumbent head of government. Not even every second person in Saarland considers him a good prime minister. And less than one in four sees him as more competent, a leader and more credible than the SPD’s top candidate Rehlinger.

This also has consequences for the perception of the CDU in Saarland. Only 22 percent of those entitled to vote see it as the party that can best solve the most important tasks in the state. That’s not even half as many as in the 2017 election. Only 25 percent trust the CDU most likely to advance the economy – five years ago there were twice as many. And only 22 percent believe that the CDU can best create new jobs – a drop of 20 percentage points. Ultimately, this has serious consequences for the party because jobs are the most frequently mentioned issue by voters as the decisive issue.

The losses of the CDU run through all age and population groups. The Union recorded the greatest losses among voters over 60 years of age – there their share of the vote fell by a third. In addition, this time it was mainly employees and civil servants who turned away from the CDU.

The left loses on everyone

In the case of the Left Party, too, the losses run through all sections of the population. Die Linke lost double digits among voters over 45 – as did traditional support groups such as workers.

The resignation of the longtime draft horse Oskar Lafontaine is clearly noticeable. A majority in the country is convinced that with him at the helm, many more people would vote for Die Linke. 15 percent are satisfied with the work of the current top candidate Barbara Spaniol – a significantly better value than for the top staff of the Greens and FDP. But four out of five eligible voters are of the opinion that Die Linke is too divided to be able to seriously help shape politics.

AfD benefits from dissatisfaction

The AfD lost slightly compared to the 2017 election, but entered the state parliament as the third strongest force. It performs best among men between the ages of 25 and 44, where it achieves double-digit shares of the vote. Workers and voters who are dissatisfied with their own economic situation opted for the AfD particularly often.

Against this background, the party also profited from the protest against current politics in this election. More than half of AfD supporters justify their own voting decision with disappointment about other parties. At the same time, the party is also strengthening its own base with its key issues. Because more than a third chose the AfD according to their own statements this time out of conviction. The supporters of the party most often named dealing with Corona and rising prices as the key issues in the election. However, three out of four voters in Saarland are of the opinion that the AfD is far too divided to be able to seriously help shape politics.

Greens hardly benefit from the federal government

The Greens have gained support among older voters. However, they achieve the largest share of the vote among first-time voters. Even if the most important federal politicians of the Greens achieve the highest popularity ratings in the Saarland, 75 percent of those entitled to vote think that the party in Saarland lacks suitable personnel to be able to participate in government. Two-thirds are also of the opinion that the party is too divided in the country to be able to seriously help shape politics.

Even if the Greens are traditionally credited with high competence values ​​when it comes to energy policy, the party in Saarland can hardly benefit from this. Despite the nationwide topicality of the topic, it performs significantly worse on this point than in 2017. Because a majority in Saarland is of the opinion that the Greens do not care enough about the security of the energy supply.

FDP lacks suitable personnel

The FDP does not make it into the state parliament. You succeed in making gains in some population groups. Liberals do particularly well among the self-employed and young men. The party succeeds in mobilizing those who are dissatisfied. 44 percent of FDP voters state that they have decided in favor of the Liberals out of disappointment with other parties.

But the liberals are also strengthening their profile – also thanks to the weakness of the CDU. Nine percent trust her with the best solutions when it comes to advancing the economy. That is three times as many as in 2017. The FDP also scored points with its concepts in securing and creating jobs and in transport policy. However, a majority says that the FDP in Saarland has no suitable staff to help govern.