State election in Bavaria 2023: CSU in the lead, close duel for second place – forecast and projections – Bavaria

This Sunday, around nine million voters in Bavaria were called upon to elect a new state parliament. At 6 p.m., the BR published an initial forecast in collaboration with the opinion research institute Infratest dimap:

  • CSU: 37.0 percent
  • SPD: 8.5 percent
  • The green: 16.0 percent
  • FDP: 3.0 percent
  • AfD: 15.0 percent
  • Free voters: 14.0 percent
  • Other: 6.5 percent

According to the 6 p.m. forecast from the Elections Research Group (ZDF), the parties will perform as follows:

  • CSU: 36.5 percent
  • SPD: 8.5 percent
  • The green: 15.5 percent
  • FDP: 3.0 percent
  • AfD: 16.0 percent
  • Free voters: 14.0 percent
  • Other: 6.5 percent

As expected, the CSU received the most votes. Depending on the forecast, the AfD ends up in second place and the Greens come in second. The Free Voters follow behind. The SPD achieved a historically bad result, the FDP was thrown out of the state parliament. The voter turnout was 72.5 percent.

All election results at a glance

According to the latest surveys, the Free Voters and AfD in particular are likely to gain more votes compared to the 2018 state election. It is still unclear whether and how significantly the other parties will lose; in the most recent surveys, the results are still within the fluctuation range inherent in such surveys. In addition, the respondents’ voting intentions may change between now and the state election.

It is certain that the CSU and Free Voters will together get enough votes to continue their coalition after the election. Theoretically, however, other coalitions would also be conceivable. According to the latest surveys, the FDP is likely to miss its return to the state parliament.

The results in all voting districts

In the 2023 state elections, voters can cast their votes in 91 constituencies. Journalists of the South German newspaper evaluate the results for each voting district separately and prepare the results for you in automatically updated articles.

This is how the constituencies voted

While the balance of power is clearly distributed in many voting districts, the first-placed party is often only slightly ahead of the second-placed party, especially in large cities.

Here you can go directly to the automated analyzes for every electoral district in Bavaria, sorted by administrative district:

Middle Franconia: Ansbach-Nord, Ansbach-Süd, Weißenburg-Gunzenhausen, Erlangen-Höchstadt, Erlangen-Stadt, Fürth, Neustadt adAisch-Bad Windsheim, Fürth-Land, Nuremberg-Nord, Nuremberg-East, Nuremberg-South, Nuremberg-West, Nuremberg Land , Roth

Lower Bavaria: Deggendorf, Dingolfing, Kelheim, Landshut, Passau-East, Passau-West, Regen, Freyung-Grafenau, Rottal-Inn, Straubing

Upper Bavaria: Altötting, Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Berchtesgadener Land, Dachau, Ebersberg, Eichstätt, Erding, Freising, Fürstenfeldbruck-Ost, Ingolstadt, Landsberg am Lech, Fürstenfeldbruck-West, Miesbach, Mühldorf a.Inn, Munich-Bogenhausen, Munich -Giesing, Munich-Hadern, Munich-Land-Nord, Munich-Land-South, Munich-Milbertshofen, Munich-Mitte, Munich-Moosach, Munich-Pasing, Munich-Ramersdorf, Munich-Schwabing, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen, Pfaffenhofen adIlm, Rosenheim-East, Rosenheim-West, Starnberg, Traunstein, Weilheim-Schongau

Upper Franconia: Bamberg-Land, Bamberg-Stadt, Bayreuth, Coburg, Forchheim, Hof, Kronach, Lichtenfels, Wunsiedel, Kulmbach

Upper Palatinate: Amberg-Sulzbach, Cham, Neumarkt idOPf., Regensburg-Land, Regensburg-Stadt, Schwandorf, Tirschenreuth, Weiden idOPf.

Swabia: Aichach-Friedberg, Augsburg-Land, Dillingen, Augsburg-Land-South, Augsburg-City-East, Augsburg-City-West, Donau-Ries, Günzburg, Kaufbeuren, Kempten, Oberallgäu, Lindau, Sonthofen, Marktoberdorf, Memmingen, Neu- Ulm

Lower Franconia: Aschaffenburg-East, Aschaffenburg-West, Bad Kissingen, Haßberge, Rhön-Grabfeld, Kitzingen, Main-Spessart, Miltenberg, Schweinfurt, Würzburg-Land, Würzburg-Stadt

source site