South Africa: Just a stage win for Ramaphosa?

The previous chairman is also the new one: Cyril Ramaphosa, shaken by a corruption scandal, has made it again. But is the month-long power struggle really over?

He did it again, and surprisingly clearly: Cyril Ramaphosa is also the new chairman of the South African governing party ANC.

The official final result shows 2,476 votes for Ramaphosa, while opposing candidate Zweli Mkhize received 1,897 votes. Mkhize had already played against Ramaphosa five years ago, at that time he had a lead of only 179 votes, this time it is 579.

Tough struggles behind closed doors

In the past few days, there had apparently been violent clashes behind closed doors. Two national associations, which had initially supported Ramaphosa, had suddenly switched to the Mkhize camp, at least that was speculated in the media. At the last minute, however, numerous delegates seem to have voted for Ramaphosa after all.

On Tuesday, the majority of the ANC gathered behind Ramaphosa. But is this really the end of the fight? Some fear: After the intrigue is before the intrigue.

Why party leadership is so important

It is not simply an intra-party power struggle that has been staged here. It is about the question of how South Africa’s politics will be shaped in the coming years. Because the ANC chairman is traditionally the next president. Provided the ANC also wins the next elections, which will be held in 2024.

In recent days, polls have shown that the ANC would have better chances with Ramaphosa than with other candidates. Although the incumbent president has been stricken by a corruption scandal called “Farmgate”.

What “Farmgate” means

Cyril Ramaphosa breeds animals, more precisely buffalo, on his farm “Phala Phala” in northern South Africa. Apparently, a Sudanese businessman bought several buffalo there in February 2020 and paid the bill in cash. It is unclear what the amount is. “Several million US dollars,” shout Ramaphosa’s political opponents, “580,000 US dollars,” says the president and breeder.

Ramaphosa himself was not present at the time, the sale was apparently handled by his farm manager, who then allegedly hid the cash under sofa cushions. Ramaphosa’s critics speak of money laundering, corruption and tax evasion.

Finally, the money was stolen, allegedly an employee had given the thieves access to the farm.

A robbed man who doesn’t call the police

Ramaphosa only asked his security service to search for the thieves, he left the official police outside. His people apparently found the thieves and allegedly managed to bribe them into silence.

The president was initially silent on the allegations for weeks, but finally said something like this in the ANC’s internal investigative committees: “Don’t worry, nothing bad happened, everything is fine.”

Since then there has been a lot of public speculation. Typical ANC, all behind closed doors, ranks closing behind the President? Far from it, because Ramaphosa’s opponents had the upper hand for a long time.

Why he didn’t have to make room

There is an internal party rule: if an ANC official is under investigation by the police, he or she may no longer run for a party or government post. “Make room,” means the rule – “step aside.”

Ramaphosa’s opponents tried as early as June to persuade the South African police to conduct an official investigation against the president, but so far none have been initiated. Ramaphosa was therefore allowed to run again for the post of ANC party leader. But the political dispute picked up speed. Finally, it was said that Parliament should decide.

What Parliament Decided

The ANC still has the majority there, albeit not as comfortably as it used to be. 230 MPs out of 400 are from the ANC. The only question now was: How many dissenters would there be? Up to 42 were briefly heard. But that did not happen, and Ramaphosa’s political opponents remained strangely silent.

An impeachment trial against Ramaphosa was defeated on Tuesday by 214 votes to 148, with two abstentions. Since then, the candidate and breeder has felt relatively confident that he would make the race this weekend. Once again the ANC had closed ranks, albeit at the last moment.

How it goes on

But it remains the same: the ANC against all others. The opposition has announced that it will continue to take legal action against Ramaphosa.

The buyer of the buffalo is now demanding that the money be returned to him. He had not received an export license for months because of Covid and now he is no longer interested.

It remains a mystery why Ramaphosa behaved this way in the “Farmgate” scandal. The most plausible variant seems to be that he does not want to be associated with the buyer, who is said to have links to former Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir.

On Thursday, it was announced that the ANC’s membership had fallen from 1.4 million to 600,000.