South Africa: Former head of state Zuma on the verge of a comeback?

Zuma’s record as president was disastrous. But that no longer counts for many South Africans. Your dissatisfaction could help him make a comeback.

For the African National Congress (ANC), hardly a day goes by without bad news. The poll numbers are sinking further and further into the basement; currently the Mandela party, which was previously spoiled for success, has just 37 percent.

After 30 years of sole government, the ANC is blamed for everything that goes wrong in South Africa – and that’s a lot. The country is struggling economically, half of the population lives in poverty and crime is rampant. The infrastructure is dilapidated. Streets are full of potholes, the power is constantly out, and large parts of Johannesburg have been left dry for weeks due to a water crisis.

In addition, there are always new allegations of corruption against leading ANC representatives. Most recently, Parliament Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula had to vacate her post: she was charged with bribery and money laundering.

A nightmare for the ANC

And then there is Jacob Zuma. The former president and ANC leader is gradually becoming a nightmare for the current party leadership. The 81-year-old has long been one of the harshest critics of his successor Cyril Ramaphosa and could cost the ANC the decisive votes in the upcoming parliamentary elections at the end of May. Zuma is running as the top candidate for the newly founded MK party, which is currently shaking up the election campaign in South Africa, although little is known about its specific goals.

Anyone who describes “MK” as left-wing and populist is certainly not wrong. But the party’s political program is: Jacob Zuma. And despite numerous corruption scandals during his time in power, he still has many supporters, especially among the large Zulu ethnic group.

Maneuvers that miss their target

This is making the ANC increasingly nervous. The ruling party has already tried twice to stop the dangerous competition through the courts, which political analysts consider to be a serious tactical mistake. Because the ANC not only failed as expected with its legal maneuvers, which experts believe were poorly prepared, but also gave the new Zuma party a lot of public attention and thus made it really strong.

In any case, the “MK” supporters see themselves on the rise. Your top candidate is also brimming with self-confidence and openly formulates his claim to leadership: “I’m not done with my work as head of state yet,” Zuma said to his supporters at the beginning of the week. And: “If people want me, then no one can stop me.”

legacies without consequences

But would such a comeback actually be conceivable? After all, Zuma is the most controversial politician in the history of democratic South Africa. During his presidency from 2009 to 2018, corruption flourished like never before. With his loyalists in government and business, Zuma had literally plundered the state.

In 2021, the ex-president was sentenced to 15 months in prison for violating court orders because he refused to testify about nepotism during his time in office. But that obviously doesn’t affect his popularity among large parts of the electorate.

According to recent surveys, it cannot be ruled out that “MK” together with other opposition parties will organize a majority against the ANC. This would clear the path for Zuma back to the top of the state – at least in theory.

How much can the constitution be strained?

The South African constitution actually prohibits Zuma from reaching for the presidency again. Only two terms of office as head of state are expressly permitted, and the 81-year-old has already completed that. However, a legal loophole could open up here.

In any case, the political professional, who is well versed in legal matters, is already letting his followers spread the word that he ended his second presidency early and left half a year earlier than planned. What the “MK” fans tend to keep quiet about: Zuma had by no means left the Union Buildings, the seat of government in Pretoria, voluntarily, but had been dropped by the ANC, his party at the time, because of massive corruption allegations and pressured to resign.

Some in the ANC therefore believe that Zuma’s political comeback is primarily about a personal vendetta.