Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tried in vain on Monday in Sochi, Russia, to persuade Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin to return to the suspended grain agreement. Putin said that restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products had to be lifted first. He again complained that Western sanctions were allegedly hampering the export of Russian grain, fertilizer and agricultural machinery.
Nevertheless, Erdoğan said that he believes that a solution will be found soon. The United Nations and Turkey would prepare new proposals on the grain deal. It was the first meeting between the two since last October. In July, Russia withdrew from the grain deal brokered by Erdoğan, which regulated the export of Ukrainian grain and corn across the Black Sea to Istanbul.
Erdoğan actually wanted to receive Putin in Turkey, but instead he flew to Russia to try to revive the agreement. When he met Putin, Erdoğan said he was certain that the meeting would send “an important message” to African countries in particular. He assured that he was ready to talk about the agreement again. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dampened excessive hopes during the talks. He said no documents were expected to be signed.
Ukraine can circumvent the blockade via Danube ports
Erdoğan’s journey began hours after a Russian attack on Ukrainian grain ports. According to the Ukrainian account, they were Shahed-Drones that Russia bought in Iran, which approached from the Black Sea on Monday night. They are disposable drones that destroy by crashing them over their targets.
This time he has achieved nothing: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visits Russia’s ruler Vladimir Putin in Sochi.
(Photo: MURAT CETINMUHURDAR/Turkish Presidential Office/ REUTERS)
This time they crashed into the docks of Ismail, a port on the Danube not far from the Black Sea. The Danube is the border river between Ukraine and Romania at this point. Since Russia allowed the grain agreement to expire in July, Ukraine has no longer been able to export, at least not by sea freighter as before.
Danube ports like the one in Ismail are a way for Ukraine to circumvent the Russian blockade. The grain takes a detour across the river from Ismail to Romanian Constanța; only there, on EU soil, is it then loaded onto ocean freighters. This is exactly what Russia attacked with the drone attack. Ukraine reported property damage, burning grain stores, but no deaths or injuries.
Türkiye plays an important role in the drone war
The attack was aimed at the port, but presumably it was also intended to have a symbolic effect before Erdoğan’s trip to Putin: Russia is able to control what is happening around the Black Sea. Just opposite Turkey, which in turn Ukraine their TB2-Drones and thus plays an important role in the drone war in Ukraine.
Turkish President Erdoğan and Kremlin chief Putin are used to being on opposite sides in wars. In Syria they fought each other indirectly for years, in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia they are opposing protective powers. However, it is also new for the two of them that Turkish weapons are aimed directly at the Russian military.
Erdoğan recently noticed Putin’s weakness and demonstratively sought proximity to the West. He received the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul and handed him over several of his commanders from the Azov Steelworks in Mariupol. Russia had captured these commanders and, as part of a deal, extradited them to Turkey on the condition that they stay there. Erdoğan simply ignored it, a provocation for Putin.
Trade volume between Russia and Turkey is growing
Strictly speaking, opponents of the war sat opposite each other in Sochi on Monday. Both Erdoğan and Putin initially emphasized their economic ties, which are likely to be central to Russian-Turkish relations. The volume of trade between the countries is growing, Russian vacationers take first place in Turkish tourism statistics. Erdoğan spoke extensively about the energy sector, especially about the plan to turn Turkey into a hub for Russian gas.
Erdoğan and Putin have often been able to reconcile their interests. The fact that Turkey supplies drones to Ukraine but does not participate in sanctions against Russia puts it in an advantageous role: Russian gas that has arrived in Turkey could soon flow from there to the world.
Putin had apparently been thinking in a similar direction for some time when it came to the grain agreement. Russian agricultural goods are finding it difficult to enter the international market because of Western sanctions. The country is excluded from the Swift international payment system due to the sanctions. Here, too, Turkey could act as a kind of broker.
So that’s what the meeting was about: exploring what role Turkey can play for Russia. And also whether the longstanding relationship between Erdoğan and Putin is still intact after the recent upsets. Erdoğan’s ambition should not end with the grain deal. He would like to be the one who continues to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, up to and including a possible peace agreement.