analysis
War in Ukraine
Sickle Cut – Russians are about to cut the city of Avdiivka in half
The president is trying to boost morale. Volodymyr Zelenskyj recently visited Avdiivka, the picture shows him at Robotyne.
© AP
First the defensive belt in the south was lost, now the Russians were able to penetrate the city area. They advance between the Ukrainians’ strongholds – a huge factory and the skyscrapers of the city. If they succeed in this cut, Avdiivka is lost.
The focus is on the tough fighting for the fortress town of Avdiivka, not far from the separatist stronghold of Donetsk. The heavily fortified city has been fought over for months. And although Avdiivka is surrounded on three sides, the Russians have not yet managed to close the cauldron. Since the weekend it now looks as if they no longer have to strive for inclusion. The Russians are now on the verge of splitting the “almost cauldron” down the middle. If they succeed in this, the city will be irreparably lost.
About 14 days ago the invaders conquered the defensive belt south of the actual city area. Their stormtroopers used a disused pipeline to get unnoticed to the rear of the defenders, who had to abandon their trenches and bunkers. And apparently the Russians then managed to establish themselves in the simply built-up zone and repel the furious counterattacks of the Ukrainians. The Russian position is improved because their coup allowed them to take possession of the heights south of the city.
Zone at the swimming lake was lost
At the weekend, the situation at the other end of the city continued to deteriorate. In the northeast of the city, the Russians were able to advance along two lines along a bathing lake and take possession of a strip of dachas. This meant that all Ukrainian positions east of the dacha settlement were immediately threatened.
In addition, they were able to penetrate into the actual city area. This is also what the pro-Ukrainian website “Deep State Map” marks. A Russian video shows a sign of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” on the railway bridge, a command group was able to advance that far. If Putin’s troops can hold this position, they will cut the city in half. In doing so, they leave out the strongest points of the defense. In the north, the Ukrainians run the huge coking plant. The massive and confusing development of the old complex offers them protection. And in the south, the defenders rely on the high-rise buildings of the city center, the citadel.
Long and narrow
Overall, Avdiivka is very elongated and yet very narrow. Behind the railway line there are only about 700 meters of simply developed land. If this strip is also lost, the boiler is not only split, the last access routes are also cut off. The Ukrainians would then have to transport injured people and supplies across open fields.
The latest Russian successes show that the city’s resilience is waning. The Ukrainians are probably unable to bring in new troops and supplies on a sufficient scale. There is also a special feature of warfare. Ukraine’s defense relies on “firefighting units,” to use a term from World War II. The first trenches and bunkers are occupied by second line troops. Territorial defense units and conscripted soldiers with limited training. They are there to prevent the Russians from infiltrating, to provide resistance in the event of a major attack and to take away the momentum of the attack. The counterattack is then carried out by the troops of the “big” brigades. At present it appears that the strength of these elite troops has been exhausted in an attempt to push back the Russians in the south.
Little chance of turning the tide
There is still a possibility of pushing the Russians out of the city again. But since this didn’t work in the south, one shouldn’t rely on success. The splitting of the city and the cutting off of the last routes marks the final phase of the fighting. The Russian high command will probably decide how long it takes to finish. It will be decided whether the fighting will continue with energetic attacks and casualties or whether the infantry fighting will subside and rely on drones, artillery and glide bombs. Trusting that lack of supplies and replacement troops will weaken the defenders on their own.
In the northwest of the city, American Abrams main battle tanks were spotted near the front for the first time. It is conceivable that Kiev will try to attack the northern perimeter of the city. Success would be questionable, the Russian position there is not excellent, but the Russians had months to prepare for such an attack.
What would the loss of the city mean?
In any case, losing a city again would be a humiliation and PR defeat for Kiev and a gain for Putin. But the fall of this city would be far worse than that of Bakhmut. The narrative at the time was that the heroic resistance had gained time. Time in which new troops are being trained, which will then drive the Russians back in the following summer offensive.
This narrative has been worn out since the offensive failed. What remains is the realization that the Russian method of destroying and taking over individual cities with a sledgehammer is making slow but steady progress. Even today there is no need to fear that the Russians will make really deep inroads. But they will move on to the next town.
On the Internet, people console themselves with videos documenting Russian losses and close both eyes to the other side’s videos. The battle for Avdiivka was and is costly for both sides. The Ukrainians are also throwing poorly trained troops into the fight. In the city they are attacked by Russian artillery and glide bombs. The fall of Avdiivka would cause many Ukrainians to doubt that Kiev can sustain this kind of war of attrition forever. Western experts are currently propagating the idea of a “counteroffensive 2025”. Translated, one can say: The troops at the front will then have to withstand Russian pressure for over a year without having a chance of being relieved.