Madrid residents eat on the terrace in Madrid on March 30, 2021. – / SIPA
- In Spain, contaminations, hospitalizations and deaths linked to the coronavirus are currently at much lower levels than in France.
- However, restaurants, bars, shops and museums have remained open.
- The sign that our deconfinement, scheduled to start on May 19, could be done without risking a fourth wave? The reality is much more nuanced.
The images of the open Prado and the crowded Madrid terraces are enough to make the French salivate. After six months without a restaurant, bar and no cultural life, France is preparing for the return of social life on May 19. With envy… and anguish. What will happen if in mid-May, we congregate on tiny terraces and in the lines of the cinema, while the intensive care units are still full today?
If international comparisons are a perilous exercise in times of pandemic, where each country chooses its compromises, the example of Spain, which has kept restaurants, bars, theaters, museums and shops open, can it show us the way for ensure the safest possible deconfinement?
Indicators on average three times lower than in France
Spain posted in April indicators much lower than France : 100 deaths per day approximately, against 300 at home. Our neighbor now has 6,600 new cases every day … against 20,000 here. Admittedly, the Spaniards are 46 million inhabitants, the French 67 million, but the gap remains important. And with significantly fewer restrictions. And a similar vaccination rate: 25% of Spaniards received their first dose, 26% of French.
But behind this Spanish “miracle” hides a reality much more nuanced. First of all, this country had a very important third wave, but three months before us. With up to 40,000 new cases in 24 hours on January 22, and 900 deaths on February 8. Logically, therefore, we are witnessing a lull on the spot after restrictions.
Restrictions region by region
Because far from the image of a country that has taken no measures to curb the epidemic, restrictions are in effect among our Iberian neighbors. But they differ (a little) from ours. Of course, museums and theaters have remained open,
but with a gauge (75%), the compulsory mask… Most concert halls and nightclubs have closed. Indoor gatherings are prohibited (except for assistance to people), outdoor gatherings limited to six people. The curfew is late: 10 p.m. or 11 p.m. depending on the region. “Social life is two hours behind France, so it corresponds to 20 hours in France”, emphasizes
Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky, researcher associated with the
Institute of International Relations and Strategies (IRIS), specialist in Spain.
Second nuance: beware of our Jacobin vision, warns the one who is also director of the Latin America Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. “Health management is (in Spain) the responsibility of the autonomous regions. The terraces open all the time, it’s Madrid and its region. And not the whole country. It is therefore interesting to compare the national incidence rate (98 cases per 100,000) and that of Madrid: 305. Finally not so far from Ile-de-France: 336 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. “Madrid is one of the European metropolises which recorded the highest number of deaths”, adds Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky. Still, in Madrid, as in the rest of Spain, the figures for hospitalizations and contaminations have been falling for a month.
“Spain closed to the outside world and banned travel between regions (
from March 26 to May 10), prohibiting family reunions for the traditional Semana Santa), he continues. Moreover, we noticed that the region of Valencia, where the incidence rate was the highest in the country, is today the lowest. In France too, the country was re-confined in April, with a ban on traveling more than 10 km. But the flexibility for the Easter weekend and for the babysitters resulted in holes in the racket …
What to reassure?
Can knowing that the terraces have remained open and that they are doing much better then reassure us about our own deconfinement? “No, it is really linked to circumstances and rhythms of shifted contagions,” says the researcher at Iris. It is the same in Portugal. In January, it was a disaster, and today, these two countries have two or three times less contagions than in France. We will have to see what happens in Spain after May 10 [et la fin des restrictions de déplacements]… ”. Especially in a country “where 10% of the GDP comes from the tourism sector”.
Remi Salomon, president of the Medical Establishment Commission of the AP-HP, nevertheless indulges in a few hypotheses to explain this gap. “They had a first peak in March-April 2020 more violent than ours, and very strict confinement with a very present police force. Perhaps they are more observant than the French ”, suggests the nephrologist. In any case, placed in isolation,
the Spaniards can receive a surprise visit from the municipal police. And the fines are much higher on that side of the Pyrenees: from 601 euros for unauthorized travel to 10,400 for participating in a party.
And even up to 60,000 euros in case of default serious to respect for the law …
Second hypothesis, cultural this time. “The Spaniards are more used to being outside”, breathes Rémi Salomon. What Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky qualifies: “you can catch the disease in a café and it’s not just the terraces that are open. “
But Rémi Salomon believes that we could rely on this example to encourage the French even more to find themselves outdoors, where the risk of contamination drops. Many doctors repeat that going to the museum with a mask, distances, ventilation, a gauge is much less risky than crowding in a tiny bakery. “It is better to respect more flexible and well understood rules than to have strict rules that will be bypassed, the doctor tweeted. Recalling that France could do better on the pedagogical side.
“In Spain, they have terraces where the tables are really spaced and with no more than six people per table,” he adds. In Paris, we are really tight… Why not make pedestrian streets? If we manage to discipline ourselves, we can resume a social life with conditions that limit contamination. Because a fourth wave this summer, (which would mean) canceling the summer leave of caregivers, it would be really catastrophic. “