Shortage of skilled workers: “All levers must be pulled”

There is already a shortage of around two million skilled workers in Germany. As the “baby boomers” retire, there will be more of them. Labor market expert Enzo Weber explains in an interview how countermeasures can be taken.

tagesschau24: Around two million positions are currently unfilled. Many companies are looking for staff. Which sectors are particularly badly affected?

Enzo Weber: This labor shortage is now a widespread phenomenon. Before the pandemic, the areas of care and education were mainly affected. Due to the energy transition, things have now become very tight in the craft and transport sectors. And the catering industry also has to fill its gaps. Workers are scarcer today than at any time since the economic miracle.

tagesschau24: If there are no staff, no orders can be accepted or processed. Does this mean that companies will accept fewer orders in the future?

Weber: In fact, the economy can only provide services to the extent that the potential allows. Basically, there have never been as many people employed in Germany as there are currently. Although there are fewer and fewer workers, most of them are employed. However, the personnel shortages are primarily due to the fact that overall demand has increased and will continue to increase.

Whether crafts, care or education: the need is increasing

tagesschau24: Why has the need increased?

Weber: We’ve had a really strong labor market trend since mass unemployment in the 2000s. We have had labor market reforms and now have some positive trends. The need for education continues to increase due to the expansion of daycare centers; the need for care is increasing due to aging; in information technology due to digitalization and in crafts because of the energy transition. These are challenges that must be addressed and secure employment despite an economic downturn.

tagesschau24: Do you expect that craftsmen, for example, will be able to pay for this growing need and the associated high burden?

Weber: One of our studies shows that 400,000 additional technical and craft workers would be needed just to implement the goals of the coalition agreement in climate and construction policy. At the same time, fewer and fewer people are taking part in vocational training, which is creating further bottlenecks. There is definitely the potential for craftsmen to increase their hourly rates and thus increase costs for customers. You can already see that now. In some areas there are already hourly rates of 70 euros.

Flexible working hours are becoming more important

tagesschau24: There are experts who expect craftsmen to have triple-digit hourly rates in the next few years. Do you think that’s realistic?

Weber: Three-digit hourly rates are still a long way away. However, the prices also depend on the location. In metropolitan areas there are already really high rates that are no longer that far away from three-digit hourly rates.

tagesschau24: How can apprenticeships be made more attractive overall?

Weber: The energy transition is increasing demand and with it the chance that craft jobs will become more attractive. In the past, they were often not as prestigious as, for example, established industrial jobs. This could change now. And there will certainly be changes in pay, but also working conditions. Flexibility in working hours is also becoming increasingly important, so that work can be adapted to one’s own life.

“It needs investment”

tagesschau24: When the “baby boomer” generation retires in the next few years, there will be an even greater shortage of skilled workers. How serious will the problem be in the next few years?

Weber: We are faced with a really big challenge. Because a large generation will retire by 2035 and a small generation will follow, we would lose seven million people in employment. But that won’t happen because it can be compensated for. When older people stay in working life longer and carry out appropriate activities even in stressful jobs. Or if the professional development of women is promoted despite the child phase and at the same time an open immigration policy and corresponding integration into the labor market is pursued, we can avoid shrinkage. But for this to happen, all levers have to be pulled into action.

tagesschau24: There are currently around 900,000 long-term unemployed people in Germany. How can these people be brought back into employment here in Germany?

Weber: It depends on the individual case. Because there are often difficulties such as a lack of qualifications or health restrictions. And that requires investments. If there is now an economic recovery, we will continue to move towards full employment in Germany.

tagesschau24: In this context, citizens’ money is often criticized. It is an incentive not to work. Do you think the criticism is justified?

Weber: There is currently a discussion that many people are now quitting their jobs in order to then receive citizen’s benefit. However, if we look at statistics, a different picture emerges. Never before have so few people become unemployed as is currently the case. Relatively few people go back to work on citizen’s benefit. But we don’t have an acute problem, we have a fundamental one. The wage gap between citizen’s benefit and the minimum wage is too low. In addition, in our system, very little of the salary is often retained in many areas.

The interview was conducted by Anne-Catherine Beck, ARD finance editor.