analysis
Successor to Laschet
Party leader wanted, superstar needed: What the CDU is about now
Friedrich Merz is considered a possible candidate for the CDU chairmanship
© Bernd Thissen // Picture Alliance
The CDU is looking for a new party leader. Two aspirants get into position, one of them could have the better chances. It is also about the course of the crisis-ridden Christian Democrats.
The CDU is looking for a new party leader, in practice it probably needs a political superstar to organize the comeback of the crisis-ridden Christian Democrats. After the disastrous federal election, the party is apparently without a head or course.
According to the current state of affairs, she will get a male Catholic, over 40 years of age and from North Rhine-Westphalia.
Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, Jens Spahn, Carsten Linnemann and Ralph Brinkhaus are the names of the alleged antagonists who are likely to fight the power struggle among themselves that concerns their party (now for the third time in three years). Albeit under the impression of a premiere: On this Tuesday, the CDU leadership should decide what the district chairmen had voted for on Saturday with a large majority – that there should be a member survey about the party chairmanship for the first time.
So much for the few reliable certainties. The concrete procedure and, last but not least, who could emerge victorious from it, remain questionable.
The search for the CDU superstar
The currently most promising candidates, who are said to have ambitions – no candidacy has yet been officially declared – are already in position: the foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen, 56, and the economic expert Friedrich Merz, 65. Both were defeated in a vote against Armin Laschet in January who failed as CDU leader and candidate for chancellor of the Union and will in future sit as a simple member of the Bundestag.
Röttgen made his interest clear on Deutschlandfunk. The CDU also needs conservative ideas. “Only to me it is clearly clear that the center of the party, including the chairman, must be in the middle,” said the ex-environment minister. No surprise: “I believe that I am in the middle of the Christian Democratic Union. I would say: in the modern middle.”
Merz, who was allowed to feel addressed, is considered the darling of the grassroots. That The average age of the CDU members is over 60 years, They seem more conservative than the party apparatus – and would have probably already elected the ex-parliamentary leader as chairman when he first faced Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and then against Laschet – and each time he was very narrowly defeated.
At that time, the party congress delegates decided, who at the time only had to follow their conscience. And not, as is now to be expected, the recommendation of the base. That should be reason enough for Merz to compete again. It could be his last chance at the CDU chairmanship. In the background he is already working on a team solution, they reported “Handelsblatt” and the “Image”Newspaper (although he reported the latter almost denied). Either way: Merz seems willing to pull a possible competitor – Linnemann (according to “Handelsblatt”) or Spahn (according to “Bild”) – on his side. He could score points with the younger CDU members, on the one hand, and minimize competition, on the other.
The many W questions
In addition to a power struggle, this also indicates a struggle for direction over the future course of the Christian Democrats – which could leave a political camp disappointed. According to the latest result, Merz (36 percent) is seen as most suitable for the CDU chairmanship ARD “Germany trend”, followed by Röttgen (25 percent), who in the event of a duel could position itself as a counter-model to the conservative Merz.
The three other candidates, who are also said to have ambitions, rank well behind: Spahn, Linnemann and Brinkhaus come with 14, nine and six percent. Nevertheless, they should still have a say in the race for party leadership: If Spahn (still Federal Minister of Health and CDU Vice) and Brinkhaus (CDU parliamentary group leader until April 2022) should back off for one of the two candidates, they will demand perspective – because In the opposition role, there would no longer be many high-ranking offices to be filled within the CDU.
First of all, it must be clarified how the election of the new CDU chairman is to take place. The only thing that is certain so far is that the results of the basic survey will have to be confirmed at a party congress. Only when does it take place? The end of the year is targeted, then the entire CDU leadership should be re-elected. And how do you vote? A pure online voting is unlikely to be feasible (keyword: average age of CDU members), postal voting is tedious – and many would want a quick decision in view of the upcoming state elections. At the end of March in Saarland, in May in Schleswig-Holstein and in North Rhine-Westphalia, voting is due.
This is to be discussed and decided on Tuesday in the CDU committees. And then it should soon become clear who would like to become the CDU’s political superstar.