Russia’s war against Ukraine: New brutality under new leadership?

After military failures in Ukraine, Moscow is reorganizing the military leadership team for the war. The new forces could act even more cruelly – and shake Putin’s power.

The invasion of Ukraine has now lasted 229 days – even the state-controlled Russian media have long since admitted that in most respects it has not developed according to plan. Despite enormous losses in personnel and material and the recent lack of successful conquests, the Kremlin has long insisted on endlessly affirming its goals. But now that even the partial mobilization has only triggered a mass exodus of conscripts from Russia, more radical forces are supposed to take over the helm and bring about the successes demanded.

This is how experts interpret the promotion of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a nationwide recruitment campaign in prisons by Wagner militia chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and the appointment of General Sergey Surovikin as supreme commander of the so-called special operation. They could show a new level of brutality in Ukraine – it is unclear whether Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin can keep them under control at all and, if necessary, take action.

Surovikin: Rigorous careerist

In 2017 and 2019, Sergei Surovikin already led the Syrian mission of the Russian aerospace forces and played a key role in the Assad regime’s ability to stay in power there. In Ukraine, he was initially in command of the “South” branch, and now he is to command the entirety of the Russian armed forces there.

The US think tank Jamestown Foundation credits him with a meteoric rise in the Russian military that required “rigor” and was due to his willingness to carry out any order. He has never publicly commented on episodes in his past that raise questions – such as the killing of three civilians during the August 1991 coup in Moscow during an operation under his command or allegations of violence in disputes with other military personnel.

Prigozhin’s criminal recruits

Meanwhile, whoever welcomes his promotion is telling: He knows Surovikin, who is “the most competent commander in the Russian army,” praised Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose “Wagner” squad has been linked to war crimes. During the August coup in 1991, Surovkin “climbed into a tank without hesitation and rushed to save his country.” He himself, Prigozhin explained, was on the wrong side of the liberal demonstrators at the time – a “mistake” that Russia is still paying for today.

Now Prigozhin apparently wants to fix it: In September, a video circulated that showed him in front of prison inmates giving a recruitment speech for the front – according to research by the “Guardian” he has now repeated this in prisons in several parts of Russia and has given the detainees six months of service Freedom and a handsome monthly salary of 100,000 rubles (equivalent to 1655 euros) promised.

Inmates who have agreed to the offer can expect their own death or unlimited criminal opportunities in Ukraine: “The prisoners will know that they can act there with complete impunity,” the Guardian quoted an eyewitness named “Vladimir” as saying is now free. “The prison turns you into an animal and a lot of hatred grows in you. There all chains will be broken.”

Kadyrov: Will help surovikins

Ramzan Kadyrov, President of Chechnya, who is otherwise known at home and abroad for bullying and threatening his opponents with violence, was also pleased about Surovikin’s appointment. “I can definitely say that he is a true general and warrior, an experienced, strong-willed and far-sighted commander, for whom concepts of patriotism, honor and dignity always prevail,” said Kadyrov. The Ukraine mission is now in good hands and will change for the better under Surovikin’s leadership – “And of course we will help him to solve the tasks assigned to him,” he wrote on Telegram.

A large proportion of the fighters sent to Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion come from Chechnya. Kadyrov also strongly supported the partial mobilization ordered in September and announced that he would send his three teenage sons into action. After Kadyrov publicly criticized the Russian leadership for a lack of success a few weeks ago, he was appointed colonel general last Thursday – the third highest rank in the Russian armed forces. After the heavy rocket hits across Ukraine, Kadyrov said on Telegram today: “So, now I’m 100 percent satisfied with the execution of the military special operation.”

Shoigu out of favor with Putin?

With Surovikin, Prigozhin and Kadyrov, three ultra-radicals are now in a prominent position to steer the war effort in Ukraine according to their ideas. They are all said to have a difficult relationship with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who, like them, is an unconditional loyalist who enjoys great favor with Putin, but who does not carry out his feuds publicly.

Since March, Shoigu has not been seen frequently in public, which initially led observers to speculate about his whereabouts. Most recently, the Ukrainian military intelligence service and the Prigozhin-affiliated “Grey Zone” telegram channel unanimously reported that Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov have now been fired – their posts have been taken over by the governor of Tula, Alexei Dyumin, and Lieutenant General Alexander Matovnikov, respectively. The information has not yet been confirmed.

As the “Guardian” reports, it is no longer just Russian military bloggers who are dissatisfied with the lack of war successes and blame veteran Putin confidants like Shoigu: Rather, the entire Russian power elite is desperately maneuvering between their own restraint and adaptation to those currently favored scheduled. “In times of the insane, you have to pretend to be one of them,” a source from government circles is quoted as saying. Others report to the “Guardian” that Shoigu is actually quite happy with his imminent dismissal because he is looking for “a way out of this misery”.

Reports of “incidents” at the front

Whether the new heads at the top will turn the tide of war is uncertain. The “Institute for the Study of War” already judged in its daily report of October 9: “Putin is not able to do what his hard-line constituency is demanding of him – win the war. A redeployment of high-ranking commanders will not solve the systemic problems solve problems that have crippled Russian operations, logistics, defense industries and mobilization since the invasion began.” Scapegoats can only divert criticism from his person for a certain time – and the fact that this is also increasing among his followers is “probably a harbinger” of future dissatisfaction in this camp.

Last but not least, the spirits that Putin called could cause him completely new problems: the telegram channel of the organization “Gulagu.net”, which campaigns against torture and inhumane conditions in Russian prisons, recently reported that at the front “a number of of incidents” covered up: In the Donetsk region, for example, a “Wagner” fighter shot a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army – it was not the first incident of this kind.