Russian troop withdrawal: “Maneuvers such as accelerator and brake”

While the West says there are no signs of a troop withdrawal, the Kremlin argues: “It will take time for that.” Experts suspect calculation behind Russia’s behavior in order to be as flexible as possible.

Of course, the troops cannot be withdrawn in one day. This is how Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on NATO’s allegations that Russia had not yet provided any solid evidence that the announced withdrawal had actually been implemented.

“The grouping for the maneuvers ran for many weeks,” said Peskow. “The troops can’t just float up and fly away. It takes time for that.”

Since Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense has been publishing video material showing how, among other things, tanks are loaded onto trains and transported away – including from the annexed Crimean peninsula back to the mainland.

Valeriy Shiryaev, a military expert and journalist at the newspaper “Novaya Gazeta”, which is critical of the Kremlin, says it can be trusted. “It’s not a secret action that you can’t check,” said Shiryaev.

The Kremlin has always denied allegations

The question, however, is whether a new maneuver will not take place elsewhere afterwards – “and very soon”. “That’s exactly what happened in the past three months,” says Shiryaev.

The Kremlin has always rejected allegations that Russia is creating a threatening backdrop with the massive stationing of troops along the Ukrainian border – either with the argument that the movement of soldiers and military technology in their own country is nobody’s business. Or with the reference to regular exercises that would start and end according to the plan.

Russia can act flexibly

The only difference is that these plans are hardly ever publicly communicated, which allows the Russian side to act very flexibly, Shiryaev explains: “Now it has been demonstrated that the tension can be reduced in response to the West’s willingness to negotiate.”

But that can be “corrected” quickly, says Shiryaev. “These maneuvers basically work like the accelerator and brake.”

In addition, there is no official information about the respective troop strengths and it is therefore often difficult to understand whether their withdrawal is complete or only in part.

Moscow counters all this with the accusation that Ukraine is preparing an attack on the areas occupied by pro-Russian separatists through its increased military presence along the so-called contact line.

A document to increase political pressure

Shortly before Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin sat down together at the long table, the State Duma voted on Tuesday on an initiative for official recognition of the self-proclaimed People’s Republics. Only the President’s signature is missing.

Putin later stated that he did not want to sign the petition because it would mean the end of all peace negotiations. But the fact that such a document was prepared at all is enough to increase the pressure politically, says military expert Shiryaev.

The maneuvers, the proceedings in the Duma, the reports on television about the need to protect the people of Donbass – all of this is happening at the same time.

“These are undoubtedly part of a large propaganda-military machine,” said Shiryaev.

Response to the US

On Thursday evening, another piece of news mingled with reports of new fighting in the Donbass and images of the progressing partial withdrawal of troops: the Russian side has handed over its long-announced reply letter to the USA.

In it, the Kremlin once again emphasizes that it is not planning an attack on Ukraine and repeats its call for binding security guarantees.

Should the USA continue to be unwilling to negotiate on behalf of Russia, it would feel compelled to react and take military-technical measures. As is so often the case, the Kremlin leaves open what that means in concrete terms.