The Ukraine war is entering its third year and Russia is in the initiative on many fronts. The hope of a quick victory for the defenders has vanished.
When Russia attacks from the air, for the Ukrainians it can be a matter of minutes and sometimes just seconds. “Huzul” (20), commander of a Gepard anti-aircraft gun tank, has already had the tank’s turret secured with bolts, which carries the machine cannons on the right and left, unlocked.
The radar at the tail rotates frantically to acquire the target. “I maintain contact with the command post and wait for the order to fire,” says the young man east of the Ukrainian port city of Odessa. He was trained in Germany last year and is now protecting infrastructure.
The soldiers describe the moment of a shot down as a liberating joy that follows the enormous tension. The automatic cannons then hammer the target with 30 to 40 rounds under computer control. The slow drones in particular are relatively easy to destroy if they are within range. The gunner is 21 years old and his nickname is “Odessa”. “We let them get as close as possible. Then the success rate is higher,” he says.
Moscow: Odessa “is our Russian city”
The “Cheetah” crew is one of the men and women who always have to be at the forefront of the defensive battle. Air alarms were triggered several times in the Odessa area on Thursday. And two years after the start of the attack, the leadership in Moscow has left no political doubt about its military ambitions. On the contrary: Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev is in favor of annexing Odessa, and later possibly also the capture of the capital Kiev. “Odessa, come back home,” he says as deputy head of the Russian Security Council. And emphasizes: “This is our Russian city.”
It does not seem realistic that Russia could advance in this way. However, forcing Moscow into retreat or even defeat also seems a long way off. Western military experts are watching with concern how the Russian arms industry is increasing its production under the conditions of the war economy beyond the requirements for the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine complains about a lack of artillery ammunition, anti-aircraft defenses and long-range weapons such as the German Taurus cruise missile.
Pessimism has also grown in the EU states
Doubts are also growing in important EU countries. According to a study by the think tank “European Council on Foreign Relations” (ECFR) in twelve countries, on average only around ten percent of those surveyed expect Ukraine to win. According to the research, published ahead of the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, respondents overwhelmingly believe that a “compromise solution” will end the war.
The outcome of the war in Ukraine is overwhelmingly viewed as having more consequences for the country than the consequences of the Gaza war. And if Donald Trump becomes US president again, a majority of those surveyed believe that Europe should either maintain or increase its support for Ukraine.
Maxym fights her way back to life
For Maxym (34), the fight against the Russian attackers was over on January 8, 2023, when a grenade hit near him during a combat mission near Luhansk. He was sitting on a vehicle and was hit in the head, arms and legs by splinters. He hovered between life and death and was saved, says Maxym. He still has two splinters in his head, one of them in the brain.
He laboriously fought his way back to life in the Motus rehabilitation center in Odessa. With strength training and motor exercises, he works against movements that still seem uneven, and his speech is also sluggish. Despite it. “We only have one life. Never give up,” he says and smiles broadly.
Dust and rubble – the Transfiguration Cathedral is being repaired
The blows of hammers and the screeching sound of power cutters echo through the portico of the Transfiguration Cathedral in Odessa. It was damaged in a rocket hit on the night of July 23 last year. The rays of light make the dust in the air glitter, but the gold of the façade rubble, covered in a layer of flour, only shimmers dimly.
The reconstruction of the church, which Stalin had ordered to be destroyed in 1936, was only completed in 2010. “History repeats itself,” says father Olexij. The destruction is a wound in the heart beyond Odessa. When the construction will be finished also depends on financing from Italy.
The Professor and the War: “We are all tired”
In the first few months there was a strong feeling of unity and mobilization, while Russian warships swam on the horizon and threatened the city, says Oxana Dovhopolova, a philosophy professor at Odessa National University. This feeling of threat is gone. There is now agonizing uncertainty as to whether this war will last for several more years.
Almost in protest, she rejects the question of whether she would leave the country. But: “We are all tired. Nobody knows what will happen next,” she says.
Russia is at the forefront of the initiative
The chief military coordinator of German aid to Ukraine, Major General Christian Freuding, sees the country’s determination to defend itself against the Russian war of aggression as unbroken. But the military situation in Ukraine is tense, says Freuding, who was in Kiev for talks two weeks ago. At the weekend, Ukrainian forces had to give up the contested Avdiivka.
With the exception of this area, at the tactical level there is a relatively unchanged course of the front line, which is over 1,000 kilometers long, says Freuding. However, the most intense battles would be fought in a spatially limited manner. “Russia is overwhelmingly in the initiative along this front line,” he notes. And: “We are convinced that Ukraine can win. All our strength, our efforts and those of our partners are dedicated to this.”