Is Russia planning to invade Ukraine? Western secret services suspected that Putin’s muscles were again playing behind the troop transfers. But now the situation is taking a serious turn.
According to NATO, Russia has between 75,000 and 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine. US intelligence agencies speak of 100 tactical battalions as well as heavy tanks and artillery that have already been relocated. The developments stir up fears of an open, direct and no longer just disguised “hybrid” military clash between Russia and Ukraine and bring back memories of 2014. At that time, after the coup in Ukraine, Russia had annexed the Crimean peninsula and separatist movements in eastern Ukraine organized and supported – to this day Moscow holds its hand over the self-proclaimed separatist republics in eastern Ukraine.
A conversation between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden should ease the situation and provide clarification. Last Monday, the two heads of state conferred two hours on video. The result was not a sensation. The positions remain the same: the Russian President is demanding guarantees that NATO will not expand eastwards and that Ukraine will not become a springboard for the use of Western attack weapons systems. Biden, in turn, warns Putin of an invasion of Ukraine and threatens him with unprecedented harsh sanctions.
But Putin seems willing to take the game to the next level of escalation. Instead of withdrawing troops from the border, he seems to want to push the concentration of military forces further. Videos have now surfaced on social networks that show the Buk-M1 air defense systems loaded onto trains and their associated equipment at a marshalling yard near the border with Ukraine. The Malay MH17 passenger plane was shot down from such a system in 2014.
The recordings that are now circulating are dated December 6th. According to the tracking service gdevagon.ru the trains are still at the station near the Pogonowo military training area near Voronezh. So far, the conversation with the American president has not led to the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Relocation of buk systems
For the military expert Konrad Muzyka, analyst at the independent aerospace and defense consultancy Rohan Consulting, the relocation of Buk air defense systems to the border is a warning signal. As a result, the current situation takes on a different character than the previous maneuvers in which Russian military forces were relocated to the west as part of muscle games.
“These Buks probably belong to the 49th anti-aircraft brigade of the 1st Guards Panzer Army. Proof of their relocation is important for two reasons”, said the Polish military expert in an interview with the independent broadcaster “Radio Swoboda”. “Firstly, this is further proof that the Pogonowo military training area was selected as the assembly point for this army and that further units of this army can be expected to arrive soon Use: They serve to protect your units from threats from the air, “says Muzyka. For him, this is a sign that the entire 1st Guard Panzer Army is likely to be relocated near Voronezh – with Buk systems for their protection.
Operation against Ukraine in preparation since March?
The latest activities of the Russian military fit into a larger picture for the military expert from Rohan Consulting – which specializes in observing the Russian and Belarusian military. Last March and April, Moscow might have taken the first step in a grand plan by moving its troops west. At the time, the procedure provided a lot of guesswork. But the maneuvers last August and September make sense for the move, in Muzyka’s opinion. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, operations “in a strategic south-westerly direction” were practiced at the time. “The Ukraine lies in a south-westerly direction,” emphasizes Muzyka.
For him, the maneuvers of late summer represented a key moment. This may have been the time when work on an operation against Ukraine began. “Troops are stationed in March, maneuvers were practiced in August-September, and now they are organizationally finished. And the third phase could be an attack,” explains the military analyst. “From my point of view, it all fits perfectly into one picture.”
Troop deployment in the dark
What also worries him is the secrecy currently practiced by Moscow. In the spring, the troop movements were “very noticeable”. “They took place in daylight. Everything was pretty obvious, we had a series of videos showing military equipment being transported to Crimea or towards the border with Ukraine,” explains Muzyka. This winter, however, one observes a different approach. “Now the transfer will take place at night.” This makes it difficult to determine which troops are being transferred. The numbers of the wagons and trains are also difficult to recognize.
In addition, the website gdevagon.ru (a service for tracking railway wagons) blocked the accounts of Western analysts a few weeks ago, including Muzyka’s account. “This site was a very useful tool for finding out where and where a particular train or car is going. Taken together, these two factors made tracking troop movements much more difficult.”
EU threatens sanctions package: “Aggression must have a price tag”
So far, Western secret services have suspected that Russia’s troop movements in the direction of Ukraine are primarily trying to force NATO concessions on controversial political and military issues. It looks as if Russia wants legally binding assurances that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO, said a senior intelligence representative shortly before a meeting of the G7 foreign ministers in Liverpool. In addition, Russia wants the alliance to refrain from permanently stationing troops and equipment in Ukraine, stop all military support of the country and no longer conduct any exercises in the vicinity of Russia.
But the EU is taking troop transfers increasingly seriously and wants to prevent Russia from launching a feared attack on Ukraine with a specific package of sanctions. “Aggression must have a price tag,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday on the sidelines of a meeting with the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) in Brussels. “That is why we will communicate these points in an appropriate form (…) to Russia in advance.” However, one will not speak about it in public, she added.
“I think Russia is preparing for a sudden eventuality. And that eventuality is called war”
The military analyst Muzyka assumes that Putin is ready for anything. “I think Russia is preparing for a sudden eventuality. And that eventuality is called war,” he said in an interview with Radio Svoboda. “Has a political decision already been made? Probably not.” But he is certain that Putin has already discussed this option with the Russian defense minister. “Of course, the question always arises as to whether this isn’t just a game of muscle again. But the efforts that Russia has made since around mid-October are enormous. That is a huge effort. In combination with what we did in March and April as well as in August, this is unprecedented. We have not seen such actions by the Russian military since the Cold War. “
Maneuvers in front of Ukrainian ports in preparation
Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be embarking on another maneuver. Last Friday, Russia is said to have closed almost 70 percent of the Sea of Azov around the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea for military exercises. The Russian fleet is apparently planning target practice in front of the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol, Berdjansk and Henichesk, said Kiev naval forces. A confirmation from the Russian side was initially not available.