Will de-escalation take place? The question is being asked as Russia promised on Tuesday to “drastically” reduce its military activity in the direction of kyiv and Cherniguiv in Ukraine, after “substantial” Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul.
“As the negotiations on an agreement on the neutrality and non-nuclear status of Ukraine entering a practical dimension (…), it was decided, in order to increase confidence, to drastically reduce military activity in the direction of kyiv and Cherniguiv “, declared from Turkey the Russian Deputy Minister of Defense, Alexander Fomin, at the end of the discussions.
The question of Ukraine’s neutrality
The head of the Russian delegation and representative of the Kremlin, Vladimir Medinski, for his part announced that Ukraine’s “clear” proposals for an agreement would be “studied very soon and submitted to the Russian president”. According to him, a meeting of leaders Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, and representatives of guarantor states, would be possible in the event of an agreement to end hostilities. “Provided that we work quickly on the agreement, and find the necessary compromises, the possibility of concluding peace will come closer,” he said.
In a second statement on Russian television, Vladimir Medinsky detailed the proposals presented earlier by kyiv, which would commit to neutrality subject to having foreign powers guarantee its security. Ukraine would also agree not to host foreign military bases and to adopt a “non-nuclear” status. Neutrality means for kyiv to give up joining NATO, a red line for Moscow.
Apart from Crimea and Donbass
For Ukraine’s chief negotiator, David Arakhamia, security guarantees must provide the same type of protection as Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance treaty, which stipulates that an attack on one of its members is an attack on all. kyiv proposes that these guarantees do not immediately cover Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, nor the territories under the control of pro-Russian separatists since 2014. These disputes will have to be the subject of separate negotiations. Finally, according to the Russian negotiator, kyiv wants Moscow to undertake not to oppose Ukraine joining the European Union.
While remaining suspicious, Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the progress of the discussions. “We can say that the signals we are hearing in the negotiations are positive, but they do not make us forget the explosions or the Russian shells,” he said in a video message on Tuesday. The American, French, British, German and Italian leaders have shown themselves to be circumspect. Joe Biden is thus waiting for his part to see if the Russians “keep their word”. The reality on the ground over the next few days will provide the beginning of an answer.