exclusive
Russia apparently wants to use the topic of Baltic Sea pollution for itself. Research by WDR, NDR and SZ. Western experts should therefore be influenced and spread Moscow’s messages.
In order to get more support for its policy, Russia is apparently planning to set up a new platform with international participants. This is shown by a current paper that is said to come from the Russian presidential administration and by WDR, NDR, “Süddeutsche Zeitung” and international media partners. Accordingly, there should already have been first meetings.
According to the papers, there are plans to set up a new scientific forum to officially deal with pollution in the Baltic Sea. In this way, Western experts could be wooed so that they then also place political messages in the interest of Moscow.
Classic influence operation
The document, which is said to date from January 2023, describes the project in concrete terms: A topic that is as non-political as possible could enable representatives from European research, culture and NGOs to exchange ideas with Russia again. The authors of the document name the actually polluted ecology of the Baltic Sea as a possible topic. Their plan: A forum – “Baltic Platform” – should bring together international experts. The Baltic States in the broader sense are targeted as possible target countries for participants, but Scandinavia and Germany are also explicitly mentioned.
That’s what Western security agencies call a classic intelligence operation, a strategy of infiltration. Her analysis: Russia is trying to get back into talks with individual European countries after the sanctions by the West in order to later assert its interests.
According to the strategy paper, the platform should already be gathering guests in autumn 2023. However, the larger goal does not seem to be a discussion about the environment. Instead, it says: As a result, the “Baltic Platform” should create a “gradual transition in the discussion from non-political topics to current political content”.
Proven strategy
Western security experts consider it authentic. Two renowned political analysts from Russian state institutes are said to have written the paper and presented it to the presidential administration. They left a question unanswered. Apparently, strategies are being considered at a high level in the Kremlin as to how Russia could get a foot in the door again internationally.
The Kremlin has been pursuing similar plans in recent years. For example, Russia contributed money or personnel to the construction and use of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines and thus promoted the projects.
The then trade envoy of the Russian Embassy in Berlin was one of the founders of the Eastern Institute, which brought together many Russia lobbyists in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. A Russian agent, who has since had to leave Germany, is said to have been involved in the pipeline project. Russia has also been involved in other political discussion groups and business associations in the past.
“Unofficial Dimension”
Since the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, however, such projects have been viewed much more critically by the West than before. Eastern Europe expert Kai-Olaf Lang from the Science and Politics Foundation says: “Russia must be aware that the various formats of regional cooperation in the Baltic Sea region are in the freezer.”
The Russian strategists are obviously aware that they are on the defensive. The new “Baltic Platform” should take up the cause of the “ecology of the Baltic Sea” as a topic, because this area is “not irreversibly politicized,” the document says.
According to the research, the implementation of the plans seems to have already begun. First of all, the document lists 13 names of people for a possible organizing committee of the “Baltic Platform”. These are a few high-ranking officials, but above all rectors of well-known Russian universities who are loyal to the regime.
As early as autumn 2022, eight people from the list are said to have met in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. At that time, the term “Baltic Platform” was also mentioned publicly. This forum was promoted in later interviews with Russian media. The Russian Presidential Administration did not respond to the request for the document and the idea of the “Baltic Platform”.
“catch fish”
Aleksander Toots, head of Estonia’s internal security service KAPO, is familiar with the approach and compares it to other Russian attempts at influence: “We have identified similar operations in the past. Russia is trying to address issues that ordinary people are interested in. Climate and environmental issues are a good example of this .”
Western secret services call this a classic intelligence operation of influence, a strategy of infiltration. Her analysis: Russia is trying to get back into talks with individual European countries after the sanctions by the West in order to later assert its interests.
Marius Laurinavičius, a political analyst from Lithuania, uses the analogy of an angler – like “catching a fish”. Russia wants to use such forums to get in touch with opinion leaders. “They shouldn’t be politicians or have anything to do with big things like politics or the economy,” says Laurinavičius. The goal of such contact is to understand the “mindset” and then “to make decisions about which of these people could be used for Russian influence or even sometimes recruited as Russian agents.”
None so far contact attempts
In the paper, the authors name specific organizations that could serve as partners. These included the Baltic Sea Center at Stockholm University and the Helsinki Commission, which was established in 1974 to protect the Baltic Sea. Neither organization is known for a pro-Russian stance.
Tina Elfwing from the Baltic Sea Center explained that there have been no attempts to contact them so far. The fact that the center’s name was mentioned in the paper was “annoying and uncomfortable,” says Elfwing. It seems understandable that Russia could have chosen the state of the Baltic Sea in order to enter into an exchange with the West. The Baltic Sea is polluted by garbage, oil films, old ammunition and waste water. The situation is “very serious,” said Tina Elfwing, albeit less serious than Russia claims. For its part, the Helsinki Commission suspended Russia shortly after its invasion of Ukraine. When asked, the commission confirmed that. All projects would continue – but now without Russia.
In addition to WDR, NDR and SZ, the following media were involved in the research: Delfi Estonia, Dossier Center, Expressen, Frontstory.pl, Kyiv Independent, LRT, Re:Baltica, VSquare, Yahoo News