“It’s not a bluff. “Vladimir Poutine wanted to strike the spirits at the time of a televised intervention diffused this Wednesday morning. Forced to retreat in the face of Ukrainian counter-offensives, particularly in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, the Russian president chose to bet on an escalation of the conflict by waving, as often since the beginning of the conflict, the nuclear force, but also by announcing the signing of a decree authorizing a “partial mobilization” of the population.
This announcement comes on top of the decree signed on August 25 aimed at increasing the number of soldiers in the Russian army by 10% on January 1, 2023.
Thus, 300,000 reservists will be called up according to Sergueï Choïgou, Russian Ministry of Defence. A huge extra volume for the Moscow troops who interrogate. Publicity stunt or Vladimir Putin’s real strategy? To fully understand the situation, 20 minutes interviewed two experts.
Who are these 300,000 reservists mobilized by the Russian army?
“It is not a real operational reserve in the term we hear it in France”, warns Michel Goya, former colonel of the Marine troops and historian. These reservists are former members of the army, some called up for military service, but also civilians who may have had a contract or military experience, either with the State or with private companies.
If these people are considered “volunteers”, they are often automatically integrated into the reserve after an experiment.
However, we are not talking here about civilians without any connection with the army, as could be the case during a general mobilization. “Putin still needs specialists, high-level reservists, capable of handling the modern equipment used in the field,” adds Jean de Gliniasty, research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and former French ambassador in Moscow.
To ensure the “goodwill” of these reservists, the Russian General Staff added “a clause punishing recalcitrant and possible deserters” in its decree of August 25, points out Michel Goya. A measure no doubt caused by the defections observed at the start of the war and in the spring, when only 20 to 30% of the people called would have presented themselves.
A reluctance to mobilize which could continue according to journalist Andrei Vaitovich who noted an assault on direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul (Turkey), Tbilisi (Georgia) or Yerevan (Armenia) a few minutes after Vladimir Putin’s speech. The same journalist noted an increase in Internet searches for the phrase “How to break your arm” in Russia.
Can this mobilization have a direct impact on the conflict and the fighting in Ukraine?
“We will not see any immediate effect from this mobilization”, assures Jean de Gliniasty. Even if they have experience in the field, these 300,000 reservists are not ready to tread the battlefield.
“This is no longer the system of the Soviet era, this reserve was designed just before the start of the invasion of Ukraine, specifies Michel Goya. The equipment, the deposits… nothing has been upgraded for years. »
In addition to the training necessary for these new conscripts, the reserve would be sorely lacking in supervision, continues the historian: “The Russian army does not have enough officers and non-commissioned officers prepared for training and organization. Creating a new battalion is not decreed like that. »
Especially since these soldiers could lack equipment. If the Russian army has a large stock of heavy equipment such as tanks or guns, although often aging, it lacks individual equipment and logistics equipment. A point that has been sorely lacking in the Russian forces since the beginning of the conflict.
According to Jean de Gliniasty, this reserve could perhaps “help the Moscow troops get through the winter”, and be truly operational in the spring.
So, turning into conflict or simple pressure from Vladimir Putin?
“A stroke of pressure, that’s for sure, advances Michel Goya, but it’s not really a turning point. It’s more of a predictable escalation. With the counter-offensives of the Ukrainians, the balance of power changed and the Russian president had to react according to the former colonel: “The forces of kyiv dominate the troops of Moscow. If the Russians did nothing, it’s hard to see how they could get away with it. »
First, with this mobilization, Vladimir Putin responds to the whole world. To the West, gathered at the General Assembly of the United Nations, which he named several times in his speech as the enemy in this conflict, above Ukraine. But also to India and China, which expressed reservations about its position last week during a summit in Uzbekistan.
These new troops were described as necessary to defend the territories occupied according to Sergei Shoigu, future “Russian territories”, if the referendums of annexation announced in several regions of Ukraine, were to give a result favorable to Russia.
By adopting this defensive posture, “a historic doctrine for the Russians” recalls Michel Goya, Vladimir Putin sends the message of a last measure before moving on to the nuclear stage of the conflict: “If the troops of the West penetrate or attack defended by Russians, “sacred” lands, then the nuclear use will be justified according to Moscow”.