Russia: in panic over attacks from Ukraine, Moscow orders 100,000 tonnes of fuel from Kazakhstan

Things have calmed down somewhat in recent days – Ukraine has this time focused on the Russian airfields where the bombers are based, in particular Su-34, which are tormenting its civilians, its troops at the front or its energy infrastructure .

The last few weeks have nevertheless been the most eventful for Russian hydrocarbons, with a campaign of systematic strikes, led by kyiv, targeting major oil installations and oil refineries within range of its drones or missiles.

To the point, it seems, of putting Moscow in real difficulties, and forcing the Kremlin to call on the outside, in this case Kazakhstan, to help it supply its market with gasoline.

Great tensions over Russian fuel

From the Baltic Sea to around Moscow, a total of nearly ten of these have been affected, some of which will be difficult to repair due to Russia’s great dependence on Western technologies and personnel, and sanctions. who hit her.

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A drop of water in the ocean of fuel that constitutes the Russian hydrocarbon colossus? Not quite. As we learn Reuters On April 8, Russia reportedly asked its neighbor Kazakhstan to build up a stock of 100,000 tons of fuel, in case the Ukrainian attacks were to continue and continue to hit the Russian domestic market.

As we explained on March 14 following Bloomberg, the Ukrainian attacks on Russian installations have a real and tangible impact. If there is still room left, the country would have already lost 18% of its capacity to refine this Ural crude that it produces so massively.

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A figure a little later reported at 14% by the same Bloomberg, But the facts are there. The Russian domestic market is running out of gasoline, or at least already having to adapt to serious tensions, world oil prices could reach $100 per barrel soon, as reported CNBC following the JPMorgan bank.

As for the United States, a few months before a presidential election which could be partly decided by the price of gasoline at the pump, they intervened with Ukraine to ask it to stop its attacks, a factor of additional instability in a world that does not lack it. As reported Reuters At the beginning of April, Ukraine’s action could quickly have repercussions on the wallets of American motorists.

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Kazakhstan to the rescue: 100,000 tonnes of fuel ordered

Certainly, Vladimir Putin is now re-elected to the presidency. There is, however, no doubt that he is watching with a worried eye this new pressure on the Russian people who, already stuck in a long period of galloping inflation, hit by shortages provoking anger such as the recent “egg crisis”. , could begin to turn its back on its leader if the daily difficulties continue or worsen.

However, as reported Newsweek in March, the Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries had a direct effect on a market where they unbalanced supply and demand: the former being less, prices at the pump, also in Russia, ended up rising.

So Moscow turns off the taps. Usually a large exporter of refined hydrocarbons, and in particular diesel, it has, as explained The world March 1 decided on a moratorium on gasoline exports.

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But that’s not all: it seems that it has no choice but to turn to its close neighbors to try to stem the crisis. She has already appealed in recent weeks, recalled Stock Market Zone on March 27, to Belarus to supply its market with fuel, while some of its most productive refineries were shut down by Ukrainian projectiles.

And it is this time towards Kazakhstan that it is turning, as Reuters explains or, following the press agency, BFMTV. With a massive order: Russia would have asked the country to build up a stock of 100,000 tonnes of fuel for it to deliver if necessary, if its domestic market failed to recover.

Largest country in the world without access to the sea, hit a few days ago by significant flooding as reported the BBCKazakhstan is also a major hydrocarbon producer – and a priori it should be enough to relieve Russia.

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According to figures provided by Reuters, its gasoline stocks (AI-92 and AI-95two different octane indices, for variable uses, in automobiles for industry) would exceed 360,000 tonnes, those of diesel would amount to 435,300 tonnes, and it would have 101,000 tonnes of kerosene, for planes.

Perhaps Astana can consider itself lucky that Moscow made the request “politely”. Relations between Russia and Kazakhstan are strong and long-standing but somewhat fluctuating, as Kate Mallinson recently analyzed for the London think tank. Chatham House.

And while it may be nothing more than an inconsequential ranting, a private conversation with Russian lawmaker Andriy Gurulyov was leaked during the second weekend of April, as reported by Newseek Or Defense Blog. In it, the Russian hawk directly pointed to Kazakhstan as the next target of a possible invasion by Moscow, after Ukraine.