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Bastian Brinkman
Sebastian Dullien does not want to commit himself to a number. The union-financed think tank IMK, which Dullien heads, has tested in a model how much the German economy would suffer if gas suddenly stopped coming from Russia. But the shock would be so special that the IMK does not give an estimate of how much economic output could collapse. A trend can be seen in the data, however, should an embargo suddenly come in or the Kremlin no longer deliver: “Then the German economy is threatened with one of the deepest crises of the post-war period,” says Dullien. It is therefore better than an embargo to get out of Russian energy as quickly as possible.