Russia and the separatist areas: “An indirect annexation”

No recognition of independence – Russia has indirectly annexed the separatist areas in eastern Ukraine, says Eastern Europe expert Sasse. But Putin’s gaze is directed beyond Ukraine – and to his own legacy.

tagesschau.de: The Duma asks Putin to recognize the separatist areas, their leaders ask Russia for assistance, the President has his Security Council show up, then recognizes the independence of the so-called People’s Republics and deploys troops. Is this due to the events of the past few days in the region, or does it follow a longer plan?

Gwendolyn Sasse: The plan will have existed for a long time, even if the time and context of implementation remained open. We are also familiar with the argument that Russian citizens must be protected and that “peacekeeping troops” intervene from other conflicts such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Even in Crimea, under different circumstances, similar arguments have been made about protecting the Russian-speaking population.

The Duma – of course not as an independent actor – prepared the rhetorical and legal framework in the Russian context and now Putin has used this option, which he created himself. It remains unclear how far he intends to go beyond the separatist republics.

But with the deployment of troops in eastern Ukraine, we have a very different context than just a few days ago.

“No prerequisites for independence”

tagesschau.de: Shouldn’t one speak of a de facto annexation and thus of a breach of international law?

Sass: It is a clear breach of international law. Russia has been militarily active in the so-called People’s Republics since 2014. But now it’s becoming official Kremlin policy in public. The recognition of independence does not mean that the so-called people’s republics can be independent – not even because of their own prerequisites.

It’s also not about real independence in any way. So it’s actually an indirect annexation.

“Pseudo-historical digression”

tagesschau.de: In his speech, Putin fundamentally questioned Ukraine’s right to statehood as a historical error. Doesn’t that mean that Putin is also aiming at least for the destabilization, if not complete incorporation of Ukraine?

Sass: Indeed, Putin’s speech sounded like there was much more at stake for him than the areas in eastern Ukraine. In a pseudo-historical digression, he denied Ukraine’s right to exist as a state, and that sounded very threatening – not just for Ukraine, but for all of Europe.

In his historical interpretation he went very far back to the Russian Tsarist Empire and then criticized the Soviet policy on nationalities. He sees Ukraine as an artificial construct created in the early Soviet era. From this he derives Russia’s claim to Ukraine today. But the threat of re-creating a Russian sphere of influence went beyond Ukraine. Which neighboring countries he meant remained open. That sounded like a return to the thinking of the Russian Tsarist Empire.

This is fueling concerns in other parts of eastern Europe of the former Soviet Union.

“Historical events completely twisted”

tagesschau.de: Putin has also said that the exit of the former Soviet republics in 1991 was premature. This is probably aimed at the Baltic republics, but also at the states in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Sass: Putin has completely twisted historical events, as if the Soviet Union dismissed the former republics and did so too soon. He reduced the collapse of the Soviet Union to nationalism and presented the developments of the late Gorbachev era in a completely different way than the actual situation, in which economic, political and international factors came together. That is an erroneous interpretation of the development at that time.

“Minsk Agreement shelved”

tagesschau.de: The Russian Foreign Ministry said this morning that they are ready for dialogue and that dialogue can continue? What else can we talk about now?

Sass: Of course you have to keep trying to negotiate in a new escalation phase, which we are now in. But with the recognition of the separatist republics and the deployment of troops, the Minsk Agreement has been shelved. And that was the only existing negotiation framework in which Russia, Ukraine could try with Germany and France to clarify the war in eastern Ukraine and the status of these so-called people’s republics.

Of course, the process has been stalled for a long time. But now there is no longer any basis for negotiation. Now it is again a question of whether negotiations can take place at the level between the USA and Russia. And the scope for that has become even smaller than it was a few days ago.

“For the time being, there can only be a hardening”

tagesschau.de: Putin’s demands for a reorganization of security conditions in Europe are not off the table. If there was ever a chance to talk about it at all, it should be over for good now.

Sass: In a transatlantic alliance, the NATO states and the EU had set out clear lines that could be discussed with Russia. Among them are important things like disarmament, arms control or more transparency in maneuvers. But in recent weeks Russia has repeatedly described these things as secondary. The potential to create a new, fundamental security architecture was therefore non-existent.

Now the space for negotiating important issues is becoming even smaller and positions can only harden at the moment. And the West, if it stays united, will counteract this with the very measures that Russia actually wants to prevent.

sanctions in stages

tagesschau.de: The End for NordStream 2 and an extensive exclusion from the international financial system?

Sass: Economic sanctions will come. The first, immediately announced sanctions by the USA related to economic activities in and with the so-called People’s Republics, more will follow. The federal government today imposed a moratorium on the Nord Stream 2 certification process. EU sanctions will follow. In addition, NATO’s military presence in the Central and Eastern European member states will be increased – and that is exactly what the Kremlin wanted to prevent. In this regard, the confrontation will continue to escalate.

Putin’s Risks

tagesschau.de: Will Russia pay a high price in this respect – in terms of security policy, but also with a view to modernizing its own economy?

Sass: Russia will pay a price, how high it will be immediately and how high it will be in the medium and long term is still an open question. If there is a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the cost to Russia will also be very high. On the one hand through sanctions, on the other hand through further international isolation – at least in relation to the West. And there will be human sacrifices, and even an authoritarian regime cannot cover that up.

Russian people will see this war as less legitimate than the annexation of Crimea. So that’s a domestic political risk for the president. But he seems willing to take it.

It seems that there is a calculation with a specific time window for Russia. At the moment Russia and Putin are still acting from a position of perceived strength. In the coming years and decades, the Russian economy will weaken, the Russian economic model will be less able to sustain the state, and so things are anticipated and acted today.

History at a glance

tagesschau.de: Does Putin also have his political legacy in mind?

Sass: After the constitutional amendment, Putin has the option to remain in office until 2036. Whether he really does so remains to be seen. But eventually he will resign. That means: For him, too, and you can feel that in the emotionality of yesterday’s speech, it’s about working on his own legacy. In this context, the very extensive historical references up to the time of the Tsars were new and striking in their length and intensity.

The interview was conducted by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de