Russia and Nord Stream 1: Rejoicing in the West’s “loss of image”.

Gas is apolitical, it is always said from Russia. But on Russian state television, the verdict is clear: Germany had to back down. Russia’s own dependencies are downplayed.

The West is trying to put on a “show,” explains a news anchor on Russian television: maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is a routine procedure. There will be no surprises. And Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov repeatedly asserted that no one had found any “new maintenance work.” Russia strictly rejects statements that oil or gas is being used by the Russian side as an instrument of political pressure.

At the same time, Vladimir Putin repeatedly referred to the EU sanctions as a “lightning war” against his country. And only last week warned again that Europe’s attempts to replace Russian energy resources are already having predictable consequences: prices on the spot market, but also the costs of private households, are rising, Putin warned. And added: “We must be guided solely by our national interests and do everything we can to protect our economy and the well-being of our citizens.”

Showdown with Europe

However, the energy expert Mikhail Krutichin is observing a kind of showdown in the gas market, a kind of competition. On the one hand there is Europe, which is trying to become independent of Russian gas as quickly as possible – which could take two to three years, says Krutichin. On the other side is Russia: Russian authorities may be able to stop gas deliveries to Europe earlier, the expert warns, “to show that Europe cannot live without Russian gas.” He cannot say who will win this competition in the end.

However, it is also clear to Krutichin that Russia is much more dependent on Europe than it likes to admit. Last year, Russia would have supplied 155 billion cubic meters of gas to the European Union. There is no other comparable market for Russia. For example, the “Sila Sibiri”, the “power of Siberia”, is pumping gas to China, but its full capacity of 38 billion cubic meters of gas will not be reached until 2025. And whether China will then buy that much at all is also not clear.

“It’s a loss of image”

Meanwhile, comments on Russian television seem to agree that the missing turbine for Nord Stream 1, which has now been returned from Canada, would mean a loss of face for Germany. If it was first said that the turbine produced by Siemens and serviced in Canada could not be delivered to Russia because of the sanctions, Germany would have finally given in, according to Stanislaw Mitrachowitsch from the “National Energy Security Fund”: Germany had to publicly ask Canada to Matters sanctions to make an exception for Russia. “The West had to admit that it got caught up in its own sanctions. That it wanted to eat more than it could swallow,” says Mitrachowitsch. “Of course it’s a loss of image.”

Officially, only 40 percent of the usual amount of gas initially flowed through Nord Stream 1 due to the lack of a turbine. But Igor Yushkov from the Financial University of the Government of the Russian Federation has already warned on Russian state television that the problem with the delivery of this one turbine will not be solved could: “If it turns out that Canada is only returning one turbine and will not service the others, then we all understand that this is merely postponing the shutdown of the Nord Stream pipeline.”

The tenor is set

Because the deadline for servicing other turbines of the affected “Portovaya” compressor station of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has also expired, warns the news anchor on Russian television. Yushkov therefore proposes to her that Nord Stream 2 be launched. A Russian turbine was installed there, the expert explains – adding that it was a painful political decision for the Europeans.

In recent years, the maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has never lasted longer than the scheduled ten days. In 2019, Nord Stream AG said it was even finished four days earlier than planned. Whether gas will flow after maintenance this year is unclear.

In the Russian media, however, the tenor is already set: Germany was hit so hard by its own sanctions that it had to back down on energy security issues.