The RN one day at the head of France? More than four out of ten French people voted at least once for the National Rally, reveals an Ifop-Fiducial study for the JDD and Sud Radio, which points to the demonization of the party, but also the absence of an incarnation likely to win the presidential election.
According to this vast survey, 42% of French people say they have voted RN at least once in their life. They were 35% in 2021 and 30% in 2017, a sign of the continued anchoring of the far-right party. In the presidential election of 2022, the RN candidate Marine Le Pen had certainly obtained nearly 41.5% of the vote against Emmanuel Macron. But due to high abstention, this score actually represents only 27.26% of registered voters, or just over one in four French people.
Expression of dissatisfaction
Among the people who have already slipped an RN bulletin, the workers (57%) and the poor categories (51%) are over-represented. More surprisingly, 28% of left-wing supporters, or 27% of people who chose Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2022, say they have already voted RN.
The study underlines that the desire to express one’s dissatisfaction remains the main driver of the RN vote (24%), more than adherence to the observation made by the party on the state of the country (15%). The RN vote is more in rejection of other parties (for 61% of voters) than in support of the party (39%). A stable trend since 2017, after a strong increase in membership compared to 1997 (13%).
Among these voters, they are 92% to find justice too lax (85% of all French people questioned), 86% to think that France is a country of Christian culture (against 82%) or 92% to affirm that the country is in decline (compared to 77%). They are also 86% to believe that democracy is the only acceptable form of government (against 89% overall) and 74% to consider it normal that homosexual couples can marry (against 78%). 69% are for the reinstatement of the death penalty, a figure that drops to 50% among all those questioned.
The RN, a party still with a racist tendency, according to those questioned
Sign of a tendency to de-demonize the image of the party, 59% of those questioned qualify the RN as a racist party, a figure that has fallen sharply since 2017 (68%). 55% think it is dangerous for democracy, compared to 62% six years ago.
Conversely, 50% say he has a vision for the future of France, compared to 40% in 2017. And 47% believe him capable of governing France, compared to 39% six years ago. In the political field, La France insoumise worries more than the RN (28 against 21% of those questioned) and the RN is considered more close to people’s concerns (30% against 18%) than the formation of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Not yet the presidential costume
The survey also highlights the limits of Marine Le Pen, an unsuccessful three-time presidential candidate: only 23% give her presidential stature. In total, 41% of those questioned want Marine Le Pen to win in 2027, but only 37% predict her success. His election would be seen as a leap into the unknown for 73% of those questioned. 72% anticipate riots in the suburbs and 69% mass demonstrations.
Among the possible alternatives to Marine Le Pen, the current president of the party Jordan Bardella seems best placed, but remains a minority in opinion: 30% of those questioned would be ready to vote for him in the next presidential election, far ahead of the deputy Sebastien Chenu (12%).