Reservations against electric cars: what’s the truth?


analysis

As of: March 3, 2024 3:45 p.m

For the first time, according to market analysts, an electric model and not a combustion engine is no longer the best-selling car in the world. In Germany, there are still reservations and rejections surrounding electric drives. For good reasons?

Germany is a car country: you can always find car enthusiasts at family celebrations or in internet forums who can talk about the technical advantages or monetary disadvantages of various models in personal reports. But is Germany also an “e-car country”? Or does a kind of “German Angst”, that cliché of German reluctance towards new technologies, feed thematic uncertainties and refutable factual claims?

It is widely stated that electric cars are not “emission-free” or “environmentally friendly”; after all, battery production releases a lot of CO2 even before the first trip. That’s correct. But not when comparing the ecological balance of common drive variants: “It quickly becomes clear that an electric car still wins the race in the end. Sometimes earlier, sometimes later, depending on how big the battery is,” explains Till Gnann, who coordinates the topic of electromobility at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research.

Best-selling worldwide: Tesla’s Model Y

As the market research company Jato Dynamics announced at the end of January according to preliminary figures, the Model Y from the electric car manufacturer Tesla was the best-selling car in the world last year. This is the first time that an electric model has achieved this market position – with global sales totaling 1.23 million vehicles.

Two models from the Japanese company Toyota came in second and third place: the compact SUV RAV4 with hybrid drive (1.07 million) and the Corolla (1.01 million). The Toyota Corolla was the best-selling car in the world last year.

How the ecological balance turns out

When considering life cycle assessments, so-called upstream and supply chains for combustion engines are often not taken into account. Keywords, for example: energy expenditure for crude oil processing, transport by ship and truck. “We read again and again in our studies and others about the impressive figure that 80 percent of the emissions from combustion engines arise during operation – i.e. through the production, transport and combustion of fossil fuels fuels,” says Gnann.

The “Life Cycle Assessment Study” by the Association of German Engineers (VDI) came to a similar conclusion in December: “E-cars and plug-in hybrids have the best ecological backpack.” Condition: The electricity is “green” – which, by the way, is also a requirement for government funding for wallboxes and charging stations.

“And if there is a lack of green electricity and coal-fired electricity is imported from Poland instead?” Gnann hears and reads this question again and again and answers it with numbers: “According to the current status, Germany imports 69.3 terawatt hours and exports 57.6 terawatt hours. So that’s almost balanced. Compared to Poland, there is only a small exchange of electricity, even a slight export surplus Germany.”

Even electric cars and heat pumps at the same time did not lead to a power outage: “15 million electric vehicles and, in line with the federal government’s goals, the number of heat pumps would correspond to up to a fifth of the amount of electricity we produce in Germany today in 2030. That is with a rapid expansion of renewables energy needs in Europe,” says Gnann.

Now in the Duden: the “Range anxiety”

In addition to the fear of a general power outage, the blackout of your own electric vehicle is also frightening. “Range anxiety” has become a term in the dictionary that describes the “fear of not being able to reach the destination or a charging or fuel pump with an electrically or alternatively powered vehicle due to the limited range of the existing battery or tank charge “to stay on the track”. It should be borne in mind that in Germany the daily mileage is on average 35 kilometers and the range of electric cars is more than 200 kilometers, even in winter when batteries provide less power.

And the vacation trip? “The network of fast charging stations is well developed, especially on the motorways, and also extends to neighboring countries,” states TÜV Nord, for example. Towards the south, however, the charging station network is becoming thinner: “Here, holidaymakers with electric cars should find out more about the charging options in advance.”

Batteries can age quickly – or slowly

There is also fear of range on the timeline: batteries age quickly and replacing them is uneconomical, according to some electric car skeptics. To put it bluntly, Marcus Berger makes money from this “battery fear”: He sells health checks for electric car batteries, and the results are running up to him, now 50,000 across all makes and model years. “Batteries can age quickly, but also slowly.” Berger explains that this has less to do with the vehicle than with the driver: “Of course there is calendar aging, but that is of minor importance compared to battery degradation, which can be ’caused’ by the vehicle owner.”

Example: The “comfort zone of a battery” is around the half-full charge state. “Very often, however, vehicles are parked at 80 percent or even fully charged for many hours. This user behavior significantly accelerates battery degradation,” says Berger. In the event of damage, the entire expensive battery pack rarely needs to be replaced; affected modules are often sufficient. But: “These costs also amount to several thousand euros,” explains Berger.

Long guarantee periods

That’s intimidating. That’s why most manufacturers give a guarantee that after eight years and 160,000 kilometers the battery can still use at least two thirds of its original capacity. Although this is far from the expected total mileage of 250,000 kilometers, as stated by the Federal Court of Justice in a ruling, and below the average age of a car of ten years – but it is a sign in contrast to the guarantee on combustion engines, which is rarely given for more than two years .

This means that used electric car buyers can benefit from a battery guarantee. But according to dealers, they are hesitant because prices are too high and uncertainty about the condition of the battery. According to the ADAC, the higher price could be offset by lower maintenance costs: “Vehicles with an electrified drive are often cheaper in a cost comparison.”

The used one can always be a failure

The “battery fear” is more serious: the battery health of the car is read out in a so-called “state of health test”. But these tests are not standardized. With consequences, as battery expert Berger describes: “We can confirm that massive deviations can occur.” However, a failure when buying a used car is not a unique selling point of the electric car.

Nevertheless, opponents of electric cars feel vindicated. They happened to receive reports about car rental companies that were phasing out their electric cars. “If professional car experts decide to part with electric cars, they will have good reasons.” In fact, landlords complained about high repair costs and spare parts shortages.

“Higher fire load” for combustion engines

But according to experts, they pulled the plug on electric cars primarily because of the current discount battle on the new electric car market. If the new one is cheaper, the value of the used one also decreases. Car rental companies that keep vehicles for less than a year are at risk of losses. You want to wait out this phase of planning uncertainty. The car rental company Sixt, for example, wants to continue to electrify “70 to 90 percent of our fleet in Europe” by 2030.

And then many electric car skeptics also cite the risk of fire. “There is no evidence from our statistics that electric vehicles burn more often than cars with combustion engines,” says Alexander Küsel, head of loss prevention at the German insurance industry. Because of their flammable fuel, combustion engines even have a “higher fire load”.

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