Renewal of the party: why the CDU is still looking

In the Bundestag, the Union faction around its boss Friedrich Merz seems to have found its role as the first traffic light critic. Merz is also CDU chairman. It is unclear where he wants to lead the party.

When Friedrich Merz entered the Berlin arena a good year ago, his task was clear: to get the CDU back on its feet. After the historically poor election result, she found herself on the tough opposition bench – an unusual role after 16 years of permanent government.

Phantom pain spread and has not subsided to this day for everyone. Big names became backbenchers: Wolfgang Schäuble, Armin Laschet, Helge Braun are just three of many. But not only the parliamentary group, but also the party experienced an upheaval: the presidium and board of directors were reorganized. The trend reversal should succeed as soon as possible.

What has been achieved?

The CDU/CSU parliamentary group has come to terms with its new role. Lead dancer Merz is the strong man: he sets the pace in the general debates and repeatedly calls on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to do the political Paso Doble.

And that works: after the sluggish GroKo years, the debates are alive again, sometimes entertaining and certainly with a gain in political knowledge. And the CSU also resonates. The sister parties are back in sync. Together they trigger the traffic light parties and point the finger at supposed weak points.

That pays off in the polls. The Union is between 28 and 30 percent. She doesn’t have to contribute much at all, she benefits from the weaknesses of the others. The Union has definitely set its own accents: it helped to shape the 100 billion euro special fund for the Bundeswehr, rewrote the citizen’s income according to its ideas, and prevented the general corona vaccination requirement.

The Union faction acts as one, at least almost. When the traffic light’s application for a permanent perspective for tolerated people was voted on, 20 Union MPs stepped out of line – mainly parliamentarians from the old Merkel camp, who stand for an open, tolerant refugee policy. You abstain. And: They pierce a paper to the media. This should really be the end of it.

What is left?

The CDU is still looking for an identity. A basic program is being worked on, it is progressing slowly. It is still unclear in which direction the party should develop. The conservatives expect more conservative, the center more center. The program is to be voted on in 2024, then everyone can read what the CDU stands for. It’s hard to say at the moment. The CDU can dish out strong against the others, but is rather weak in its own positioning.

This leads to another unsolved problem that comes up again and again and that has already caused party leaders to tumble before Merz: How does the CDU feel about the AfD? Merz made a clear statement when he took office as party leader and threatened an exclusion process for all those who work with the AfD, but not everyone in the east of the republic cares. The borders to the AfD or to their rhetoric are fluid in some places.

Most recently, Merz left the problem to his Secretary General Mario Czaja. He generally maintains a rather reserved style – as if he doesn’t want to step on anyone’s toes. He rarely, if ever, gets loud. For the first time in its history, the CDU also has a deputy general secretary: Christina Stumpp. The 35-year-old should also stand for a younger and more female CDU. So far, however, it has looked more like a modern fig leaf.

The party leader

Merz is the undisputed leader of the CDU. He is the strongman that many in the party have longed for and who has restored self-confidence to the party. Rhetorically, he often makes the chancellor look old, which goes down well – especially among his own people. Merz, on the other hand, cannot win the majority of voters for himself. His personal poll numbers do not go beyond mediocrity.

And doubts are growing in the party as to whether their convincing rioters can also be the right candidate for chancellor in 2025. Merz himself is still looking for his rhythm. In terms of content, he likes to take one step to the right, two back and one to the right again. He complains about “social tourism”, apologizes for the choice of words and sticks to the point: his political cha-cha-cha.

It is unclear where Merz actually wants to go with the CDU. Does he step away from the middle, more to the right? It always seems that way when he exaggerates gender into a basic social problem, or when it comes to the question of migration. Then you can definitely observe a shift in weight to the right leg.

Then again, Merz mimics the modern doer, lets himself be filmed dancing at the group’s summer party and puts the whole thing on the Internet as a clip. The message: look, I can do things differently. Nevertheless, he is not convincing as a modernist. This is also shown by the quota for women, for which he votes, but only because, as he said himself, he can’t think of anything better.

The perspective

With a view to the state elections, the CDU is optimistic about the new year. There won’t be much to gain in Bremen, but the CDU could become the strongest force in Berlin and continue to provide the prime minister in Hesse.

And then there is the Bavarian election in the fall: this vote has a special meaning. It’s not just a question of how high the CSU wins the election, but also whether Markus Söder still sees his place in Bavaria or makes a new attempt at Berlin with a good election result.

Merz would like to avoid another monkey dance about the chancellor candidacy. To put yourself in a good starting position, a vision could help, a convincing idea. It doesn’t necessarily have to fit on a beer coaster.