Sanctions usually have a twofold effect: they punish an evildoer and they internally satisfy the need for harshness and retaliation. In the Belarusian smuggling provocation, sanctions are absolutely necessary, if only to maintain political peace in the EU and to fend off the actual goal of this hybrid attack: the destabilization and division of the EU and Germany – the real goal of the migrants.
Belarus and its ruler Alexander Lukashenko have already been the subject of four rounds of sanctions by the EU. From the dictator himself to his closest co-workers to the security apparatus, penalties were imposed in all flavors. Above all, the potash industry was sanctioned as the country’s most important source of income. The state airline is cut off from the western market, affecting 166 individuals and 15 companies. But that is by far not enough.
Now the EU should quickly paralyze the greedy aircraft leasing business, especially of Irish aviation investors, even if some aircraft are lost in the process. The Irish tax economy fits in with the ruthlessness with which these companies lend their machines for the purpose of trafficking in human beings. Those who are smart can now order their pilots to carry out maintenance work in western shipyards before the planes are chained on the tarmac in Minsk. Serious checks should also be made to keep Belarus, and especially its insurance industry, out of the money markets.
Lukashenko is only the executive organ, not the mastermind of the hybrid attack
But even the fifth sanction package of the EU will not deter Lukashenko from his cynical business. The man himself is only the executive organ, not the mastermind of this hybrid attack. With the suppression of the democracy movement, the dictator has completely surrendered himself to the Russian president, who is now taking his toll.
The cynical idea of smugglers does not really fit with the long-term rural dictator in Minsk, who must fear that thousands of people from his blackmail load will be kept in his own country for a long time. Rather, the extensive destabilization campaign of Russia, which did not begin with cyber attacks and will not end with gas poker, is also reflected in the migrant transport. The aim of this campaign is Germany because the country is so wonderfully divided in its view of Putin. The change of government to the torn SPD (on Russia issues) and the paralysis caused by the formation of a government lasting several weeks invite you to re-measure the possibilities.
If you want to solve the problem in a substantial way, you have to recognize the roots: the European immigration chaos and the German asylum policy, which promises hope to hundreds of thousands around the world. As much as this liberal openness honors and ennobles Germany, it also invites abuse. Erdoğan, Orbán, now Putin take advantage of this openness for their blackmail. The new federal government cannot enforce a more restrictive migration policy; it would destroy the coalition before it is even closed. But neither can she give the impression that she is buying herself free from her political imprisonment by paying tribute to Istanbul or Minsk. The ruling parties will consider that – the problems are faster.