Referendum in New Caledonia: Paris fears for influence in the Indo-Pacific

Is France losing its strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific? This is the question that is at stake for Paris in the independence referendum that is being held in the ex-colony of New Caledonia. China is already ready.

The green, hilly landscape is beautiful, the flora is unique, the white sand of the beaches is as fine as flour. The small elongated island is 17,000 kilometers away from Paris, off the east coast of Australia. But the pebble – le caillou – as the French call New Caledonia, is a valuable piece of earth in every respect for the former colonial power France.

Because deep in the soil of this French overseas territory, which France declared a colony in 1853, lies 25 percent of the world’s nickel reserves. The gold of the 21st century – nickel is used for batteries, cell phones and flat screens. New Caledonia makes France the fifth largest nickel exporter in the world. Losing influence here would mean rolling out the red carpet for China, says Bastien Vondendick, specialist in international relations in the Pacific.

A scenario in which an independent New Caledonia does not become a Chinese satellite is inconceivable. Why? Because China would be able to inundate New Caledonia with money, it would provide the infrastructure to mine nickel on an even larger scale. The Chinese are watching what is happening here with great appetite

says Vondendick. But for France it is not primarily about economic interests. Paris sees itself as a world power and would like to continue to appear as such in the Indo-Pacific. For this France needs the New Caledonia military base.

Fear of loss of power

Given the power struggle between China and the US in the region, France fears being marginalized. The failed submarine deal with Australia and the United States only added to these concerns. “Rightly so,” says Vondendick. “We are an important geostrategic point – close to Australia, close to New Zealand, we are the gateway to Southeast Asia. We are part of the Melanesian island arc. And we already have a military infrastructure,” says Vondendick. Adopting this strategic point would be an extraordinary godsend for China. “Today there is talk of building ports on Wanuatu or Papua New Guinea. You don’t need any of that anymore when you have New Caledonia.”

And the New Caledonians themselves? Are split. The loyalists – mostly white immigrants or descendants of the colonizers, called Caldoches, want to continue to belong to France. They fear that New Caledonia would collapse without the cash injections from Paris. The grants from France make up around 15 percent of the gross domestic product. The majority of the original inhabitants of the island, who call themselves Kanak and their island La Kanaky, want independence from France.

Daniel Goa and his comrades-in-arms from the independence party UC do not accept the “bugbear” China. “It’s just a diversionary maneuver so we don’t see that the shark is already among us. And this shark, that’s France. It’s that simple. We want to choose our partners ourselves. This partner will then be France because of us a 160 year old history connects them. But France will no longer dictate the framework for this partnership “, said Goa.

Voting under difficult circumstances

Today will be the third time since 2018 to vote. This is what the agreed timetable provides. The retainers won the first two times with around 56 and around 53 percent. This time it seemed like the mood was turning in favor of the separatists. But then came Covid. The pro-independence advocates called for the referendum to be postponed because the Kanak population has been badly hit by the pandemic and the health situation does not allow for a sensible election campaign. But Paris refused.

Now the third and final referendum is not a lucky star. The separatists want to discredit it by demonstratively staying away. The French president allegedly does not want to influence the vote. But he said again this week: France would be less beautiful without New Caledonia.