Reaction in Taiwan to maneuvers: “China has not yet attacked”

The people of Taiwan react calmly to the start of the Chinese military maneuvers. One does not necessarily fear an escalation of the conflict – the possible economic consequences are more likely to cause concern.

The day after Nancy Pelosi’s departure, life in Taipei is back to normal. There is nothing to indicate that the capital was the focus of world attention for two days. Media and military interest has shifted. It now occupies vast stretches of sea eastward in the Pacific Ocean and westward in the Taiwan Strait, where China has been conducting military exercises since today. The originally six, now seven designated zones are in some places just within sight of Taiwan’s coasts.

How do tourists react?

If anyone has a front row seat to what’s happening, it’s John Eastwood. The American lawyer, who has lived in Taipei for a long time, has been vacationing with his family on the small island of Liuqiu since Sunday. Located 13 kilometers off Taiwan’s southwest coast, it is considered a destination where nothing exciting actually happens. But in the other direction, the tropical coral island is less than ten kilometers from a Chinese maneuver zone – closer than any other inhabited place belonging to Taiwan.

“From my hotel balcony I can just see ten ships on the horizon,” Eastwood counts in the conversation tagesschau.de after. “There were 13 earlier, they showed up around noon.” He couldn’t make out her exact type. Because they are lying still and their bows are pointing west, towards China, he assumes that Taiwan’s navy or coast guard is guarding the border of the territorial waters here.

The mood on the island with more than 10,000 residents is calm, says Eastwood. No closed factories, no suddenly appeared soldiers. “If you ask people, they laugh and say China hasn’t attacked yet.” In his opinion, concerns about the impact on tourism prevail.

Territorial waters – does China care?

Should Chinese ships or planes actually appear or fire missiles directly in front of Liuqiu, it would be a violation of Taiwan’s territorial waters. According to the UN Convention, these extend 22 kilometers from the coast of a country. Military operations by other states are absolutely taboo there. This also applies to the airspace. The People’s Republic would probably point out that none of this matters because it denies Taiwan any sovereignty.

But since China’s ships and planes had never approached Taiwan so closely in decades, such a breach during military exercises would be a real escalation that could take the conflict to a new level — with Taiwan having to respond, and the risk of incidents would rise.

What is certain is that the maneuvers mean that international flights that fly to Taiwan or take off there are currently taking tortuous detours to avoid the maneuver zones. The logistics industry and thus supply chains could also be affected, because Kaohsiung – near Liuqiu – is an important container port for exports from Taiwan.

“Both Danger and Opportunity”

So while Taiwan is already paying a price for Pelosi’s visit, there hasn’t been a noticeable change in sentiment just yet. All the parties represented in Parliament were pleased, and so far no well-known politician has made any dissenting statements. “The so-called crisis is both a danger and an opportunity,” MP Lo Chih-cheng of the ruling DPP party wrote on Facebook

He sits on the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and had met Pelosi in person the day before. “The great international media attention shows Taiwan’s importance in the Indo-Pacific region. If Taiwan responds carefully to the challenges and grasps the historic opportunity, it can turn the crisis into a turning point.”

Lawyer Eastwood also does not accuse Pelosi of her visit, despite the Chinese warnings. He has met her several times over the years through his involvement in the Democratic Party and considers her to be extremely sharp despite her 82 years. “She should be able to decide for herself where to go and see for herself – especially if one day the US might be called upon to help Taiwan.”

Like many observers, he believes the current maneuvers could be a rehearsal for a possible blockade by which China could eventually attempt to bring Taiwan to its knees without invading it. China’s flight and shipping movements in recent years have clearly been designed to operate around Taiwan.