Oklahoma goes the furthest. The state in the middle of the USA wants to ban abortions altogether. Exceptions should only apply to save the life of the mother. Governor Kevin Stitt, a Republican, signed the law into law last week. But it has no direct effect – not yet.
So far, women in the United States have had a constitutional right to an abortion up to about the 24th week, first recognized by the Supreme Court in 1973. This right has so far taken precedence over the ban in Oklahoma. However, in June the Supreme Court will rule on a partial ban issued in conservative Missouri.
There are many indications that the conservative majority of judges will weaken abortion rights on this occasion. That would give the states the leeway to set up more of their own rules – and to ban abortions altogether, as Oklahoma is now planning. If the Supreme Court decides to change course, the law would go into effect in August.
In anticipation of new abortion rules, a race to even more extreme bans has begun in conservative US states. After Missouri, the large southern state of Texas followed last year. He made legal abortions so difficult with a spying clause that they are considered de facto forbidden: private individuals can sue providers of abortions after the 6th week and receive a bonus of up to 10,000 dollars.
Republicans have found their campaign theme
The race has accelerated in recent weeks, helped by the approaching midterm elections in November. The Republicans are mobilizing the conservative electorate with the issue. For example, in March, Idaho copied the Texas rule.
The cowboy state of Wyoming went much further in mid-March by banning all abortions. Exceptions are only provided for pregnant women who have been victims of rape or incest or whose physical health is seriously threatened by the pregnancy; psychological and emotional damage was specifically excluded. Missouri is now considering a tightening that would also make it a punishable offense to have an abortion in another state.
Not all states go that far. At the end of March, Arizona Gov. Doug Doucey signed legislation banning termination of a pregnancy after the 15th week unless the mother’s health is at risk. The deadline for an unpunished abortion would thus roughly correspond to the regulations in force in Germany or Switzerland.
Oregon wants to help abortion seekers from other states
States dominated by the Democrats are reacting with a counter-movement, such as the neighboring states of Idaho. Oregon has given $15 million to help out-of-state abortion patients. The state of Washington has decided that its authorities will not assist in lawsuits over abortion bans. Efforts are underway in California and Connecticut to protect abortion rights at the state level, which previously existed at the federal level. In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, went directly to the state Supreme Court for a ruling.
Red and blue states are not only drifting apart on the abortion issue. In Red Texas, parents face losing custody if they help their kids get a gender reassignment. California is now examining whether it wants to prohibit the implementation of corresponding court decisions in order to protect its residents from access by Texan authorities. Such disputes among the states and with the federal level are nothing new per se, but are part of the political DNA of American federalism.
But experts see a trend, as red and blue states are pulling in opposite directions on a range of issues, from voting rights to gun-bearing, health care and climate protection to schooling and immigration. Some therefore assume that after a phase of greater nationalization of politics, the pendulum could now swing back in the other direction.
The Supreme Court could give states more freedom again
Republican representation in Congress continues to appear strong enough to block new national rules, such as those on voting rights. At the same time, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court seems inclined to give states more leeway again. But there, too, polarization has increased – Republican voters have increasingly moved to red southern and interior states, particularly during the pandemic, while Democratic voters have moved to blue northern and coastal states.
The example of the spying clause illustrates how this works. It was invented in red Texas so private individuals would sue abortion providers. Blue California immediately copied the idea – but applied it to the makers and sellers of illegal pistols and rifles.