Israel describes its operations as “targeted attacks” against “terror infrastructure.” But civilians are also killed – this could become a key question before the highest UN court.
The victims arrive at Gaza’s hospitals covered in blood and dust from explosions. There are men holding dead infants in shrouds, mothers crying as they say goodbye to daughters and sons. It is these victims who are making criticism of Israel’s attacks against the Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip increasingly louder.
Starting Thursday, Israel will have to answer for the first time before the International Court of Justice in The Hague in the Gaza war because of a genocide lawsuit filed by South Africa. But how many civilian deaths are there? Can this number even be estimated or compared with other wars? Questions and answers at a glance:
How exactly are civilian casualties defined?
Civilians are people who are not directly involved in fighting in a conflict and who do not belong to an armed force or fighting group. Civilian victims are all those who are injured or killed as a result of combat operations because they were directly targeted or because they were caught in the crossfire. With Israel’s attacks, as in other wars, the question arises as to whether “collateral damage” is proportionate to the military advantage achieved and whether it is consistent with international humanitarian law. According to this, civilians are fundamentally protected from the dangers of military operations.
How many civilian deaths have there been in the Gaza war so far?
That is unclear. According to the Ministry of Health in Gaza, 23,084 Palestinians have been killed so far, including thousands of women and children. The United Nations considers the figures from the Hamas-controlled ministry to be credible. Israel’s army has “eliminated more than 8,000 terrorists,” according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. That would mean around 15,000 civilian deaths. However, there are likely to be confirmed figures after the end of the war, if at all.
What was it like in previous Gaza wars?
The death toll far exceeds the number of previous Gaza wars. According to the UN, around 2,200 Palestinians were killed, including around 1,400 civilians, during the 2014 Gaza war with the highest number of deaths to date.
Why is Israel’s army bombing the Gaza Strip?
The trigger was the massacre on October 7th that terrorists from Hamas and other groups carried out in Israel. Around 1,200 people were killed. Around 250 people were deported to Gaza. Israel then completely sealed off the coastal area and began an air, sea and ground offensive. Israel’s war goals are the complete destruction of Hamas so that a brutal attack like the one on October 7th, which is said to have resulted in many rapes and mutilations, is not repeated, and the return of all hostages.
Can the numbers be compared with deaths in other wars?
Yes and no. Every war is different: the contested area, the objectives, the time period, the weapon systems used. The independent British organization Airwars, which investigates attacks against civilians in conflict areas, compares its findings from various wars – albeit with reservations.
What is the result of such a comparison?
Airwars director Emily Tripp spoke in December of an unprecedentedly rapid increase in the number of victims. It is the most intensive campaign that Airwars has ever investigated. Airwars has previously investigated wars in Syria, Iraq and Ukraine. Tripp said she was reminded of the difficult battles for Mosul (Iraq), Raqqa and Aleppo (Syria). The death toll in Gaza was rising at a “scale that we really haven’t seen before,” Tripp said. The number of civilian deaths per attack in Gaza in December was around 13 times higher than in the 2017 battle in Raqqa against the Islamic State terrorist militia, in which the US was sharply criticized for causing 1,600 civilian deaths.
What are possible reasons for the rapid increase in the number of victims?
One reason is the use of 900-kilogram bombs, says Marc Garlasco, who advises the Dutch civil defense organization PAX on military issues and who previously worked at the Pentagon. This is the second largest bomb in the Israeli arsenal. The bomb, known as a “bunker buster,” could cause an entire residential complex to collapse. Even the USA rarely used bombs like this, even those half as heavy, says Garlasco. In his 20-year career, he has never experienced such destruction at such a rapid pace.
For comparison: The US-led alliance to fight IS was reluctant to drop even 220 kilogram bombs in less densely populated areas in Iraq and Syria. In Gaza, on the other hand, according to investigations by the New York Times, 900 kilogram bombs fell on the densely populated refugee district of Jabalia. Almost half of the ammunition dropped were “dumb”, i.e. non-precision-guided bombs, CNN reported, citing US intelligence information. US President Joe Biden spoke in December of an “indiscriminate bombardment” by Israel in Gaza. In addition, there are few or no options for escape in the sealed-off Gaza Strip.
What role does Hamas play in the number of victims?
According to its own statements, Hamas accepts civilian casualties and, according to UN Secretary General António Guterres, also deliberately abuses civilians as human shields. Israel accuses Hamas of using hospitals and schools or tunnels under these facilities for military purposes. The Israeli human rights group Betselem notes that such a violation of international humanitarian law by one side does not mean permission for the other side to behave in the same way.
Can Israel’s army do more to prevent civilian casualties?
This is one of the most debated issues in the war, over which Israel is coming under increasing pressure. Israel’s government spokesman Eylon Levy recently said that his country had made “unprecedented efforts to reduce civilian casualties.” In three months of war, civilians were warned of attacks with seven million leaflets, 70,000 calls and 28 million text and voice messages. However, residents in Gaza reported that Israel had repeatedly attacked areas that had been declared safe. The information from Israel’s army is said to be partly contradictory or confusing or difficult to access online due to the lack of electricity and internet in Gaza.
Using the example of the attack on Jabalia, among other things, there are also allegations that Israel’s army could do more. “Hundreds of civilians killed or wounded” were a “reasonable expectation” for Israel here, writes Mark Lattimer, head of the British Ceasefire Center for Civilian Rights, which investigates violations of international humanitarian law. This attack gives the impression that Israel now has a completely different tolerance for civilian casualties than the United States and its partners in anti-terror wars and operations in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan over two decades.
How should Israel’s attacks be assessed under international law?
While in the law of armed conflict (international humanitarian law) only individual attacks are assessed for their proportionality, international law also provides for the assessment of an entire war. Whether and how this can be meaningfully applied in the case of the Gaza war is controversial among experts – also because it is not clear whether Israel will repel an attack in accordance with the right to self-defense in the UN Charter. This would only be the case if it was a conflict between two states. And only then would Israel have to be measured against the principle of proportionality. However, Gaza’s status under international law is unclear. Is it an occupied territory? Or is it part of a state of Palestine?
Even if one assumes defense in the sense of the UN Charter – which is what statements by Israeli government officials suggest – there is no clear definition of what proportionality means here. Should Israel limit itself to an operation that causes no more damage or loss of life than the original attack? Or would the aim be to rule out a repeat of the October 7th attacks, no matter how many people die? Or would Israel have to prove that it is not causing more harm than it seeks to prevent? Although a number of international lawyers believe that Israel must conform to one of these definitions of proportionality, there is no consensus on this.