Every German loses panorama-According to research, around 2,600 euros a year are due to the consequences of the energy crisis. The AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance are therefore calling for a return to Russian gas. This would be of little benefit to the consumer.
Since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression, the effects on Germany have been noticeable: almost no gas is flowing from Russia anymore. This not only puts a strain on the industry, but also on citizens’ wallets. But how high are the financial losses actually?
Sebastian Dullien, economist at the Hans Böckler Foundation, is responsible for this ARD magazine Panorama tried to calculate this question. The result: Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) is shrinking significantly more than that of other countries due to the consequences of the war.
Germany has lost five percent of its GDP. Converted, Germans lose an average of around 2,600 euros per capita per year. In Sweden it is 1,700 euros, but in Italy it is only 230 euros. The average in the EU is around 880 euros.
Germany is particularly heavily burdened
The losses for Germans are, on average, almost three times as high as those of other citizens. To arrive at these numbers, Dullien took the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimate of gross domestic product for the years up to 2024 from the fall of 2021, the last estimate before the Ukraine invasion and the rise in energy prices that began in the winter of 2021. when Russia supplied less gas.
He compared this with the current estimate from January 2024 for 2024. The difference can be roughly viewed as the consequences of the Ukraine invasion, because that is the big change between the two forecasts.
“Germany has a few structural characteristics that have made it particularly vulnerable,” says Dullien. “We have a very large industrial sector. That means we consume a lot of energy. Secondly, a lot of this energy came in the form of gas from Russia. And thirdly, the German federal government intervened in the gas markets relatively late.” Overall, this results in a particularly heavy burden for Germany.
Energy intensive Companies particularly affected
The Bochum steelworks used Russian gas for years. Until suddenly it was missing in the summer of 2022. “I will never forget August 2022,” says Stefan Mayer, managing director of the steelworks in Bochum. “The price of energy has risen fivefold. That puts you as a company in trouble. Russian gas was very cheap to get for a long time. It was certainly an advantage.” The Bochum steelworks put its workforce on short-time work for five months – the longest period in the company’s history since 1988.
Many companies are stumbling; the steel manufacturer Thyssenkrupp Steel, for example, is planning to reduce its production at its Duisburg site, citing energy prices among other reasons in a statement. Numerous jobs will be lost. Energy-intensive companies have been hit hard by the consequences of the war.
Such companies, including those from the chemical industry, make a major contribution to value creation in Germany, says economist Dullien: “Then production simply becomes more expensive and then production is relocated abroad and is scaled down because competitors from the USA can then deliver more cheaply. And You can see that directly in the gross domestic product figures.” That is why the effects were felt so much more strongly in Germany than in other European countries.
Politicians demand a return to Russian gas
Some politicians are now calling for gas to be imported from Russia again in order to stabilize German industry. For example, Steffen Kotré, energy policy spokesman for the AfD: “We need Nord Stream 2 repaired quickly and then Russian gas will flow again. It’s that simple.” Sahra Wagenknecht from the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) says: “We don’t have a realistic alternative that is at a similar price level.”
Would it help? Austria continues to import gas from Russia. In January 2024, 97 percent of the raw materials came from Russia via pipeline; in February it was 87 percent. The gas there is still not cheap. According to the price monitor from the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), the price of gas for end customers in Austria has actually risen more sharply in recent years than in Germany.
And gas is even more expensive in Austria than in Germany. In Germany the gas price for consumers will be around 9 cents in 2024, and in Austria it will be around 12 cents. With an annual consumption of 20,000 kilowatt hours, a household in Germany pays around 1,800 euros per year and in Austria 2,400 euros per year.
The situation in Austria is bad
It is not known what Austria pays Russia for the gas because the contract between the Austrian energy company (OMV) and Gazprom is subject to secrecy. Joel Tölgyes, energy officer at the Chamber of Labor in Vienna, says: “All we know is that the contracts run until 2040, a very long time away. We also know that a large amount of gas will be purchased. And we know that Austria has to pay for the purchase , regardless of whether we step on the gas or not.”
The high prices make it difficult for many Austrians. The situation is bad – despite the Russian gas.
The Bochum steelworks cannot imagine a return to Russian gas. Mayer is already redirecting his investments: “We are all in a transformation. We are trying to completely move away from our 50 percent gas consumption towards 100 percent electricity in order to then use renewable energies. So we would like to say goodbye to the whole issue.”
Russian gas would be one Location disadvantage
Many gas market traders and economists believe that a return to Russian gas would weaken Germany’s industry and would be a locational disadvantage. Germany’s economy collapsed so sharply precisely because it was so dependent on Russian gas. If Nordstream were operational and Russia were to supply gas again, Dullien raises the question of whether that would really be of any use to Germany.
For companies’ investment decisions and also for the decision as to whether certain locations will continue to operate here, it is not only the current price that is important, but also the question: How safe and how reliable is both the delivery and the price in the future? Russia is not a reliable partner for gas supplies. This has become abundantly clear. Nothing will change when the pipelines are repaired.
This means: If Germany imports large quantities from Russia again, it could even lead to companies not setting up their production facilities here – a location disadvantage.
AfD politician Kotré, on the other hand, believes Russia is reliable: “They never let us down. There was no influence on politics. This meant we were relatively independent.”
Sahra Wagenknecht also stays panorama-Interview on her stance on Russian gas: “I don’t see that we can run our economy with sun and wind. So we should see where we can get gas and Russia has relatively no alternative for us geographically.”
You can see more on this topic on Thursday, January 18th at 9:45 p.m. on Erste in Panorama or in the ARD media library.