Presidential election in the USA: The fear of a third candidate

The race between Biden and Trump in November is likely to be very close. This makes the concern, especially among Democrats, all the greater that other candidates could lose important votes. Is the concern justified?

A repeat of the 2020 election with the same candidates? Steven Steveson from Iowa is not very enthusiastic: “Nobody can be happy with this, we want another choice,” demands the paralegal. Millions of Americans feel the same way: According to a survey by the “New York Times,” the block of so-called “double haters,” who do not want to vote for either incumbent Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, currently makes up 19 percent.

Steveson is now hoping for another candidate, put forward by the group “No Labels”. The organization says it is committed to uniting the divided nation with a “common sense” program. Steveson thinks that’s exactly the right approach: “America works better when we’re not divided,” he says.

“No Labels” could cost votes

There’s just one problem: “No Labels” hasn’t yet found any volunteers for the so-called “Unity Ticket,” in which the presidential and vice-presidential positions are to be filled by a Democrat and a Republican. Instead, there was a hail of rejections – for example from Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, as well as from Republican former governor Larry Hogan. Nikki Haley, who has just failed as a Republican presidential candidate, doesn’t want to either.

But even the vague prospect of further competition makes the Democratic camp very nervous. For months, for example, the left-liberal network “Move On” has been warning about the consequences: “‘No Labels’ is not what it claims to be – it’s just a facade for Donald Trump,” claims “Move On” activist and ex- Labor Minister Robert Reich in a YouTube video.

“No Labels,” the clip goes on to say, is actually supported by ultra-conservative donors. Their goal is to get enough votes from Biden to guarantee Trump the election.

Not a vote for Biden is a vote for Trump

Former MP Dick Gephardt also fears that just a few tens of thousands of crosses in a few crucial swing states for a third candidate and Trump would have won. The former Democratic faction leader in Congress is now involved with “Citizens to Save our Republic,” an organization that also wants to stop “No Labels.”

“This election is the most important since 1864,” said Gephardt on MSNBC, referring to the American Civil War. “I believe that if Trump wins, our democracy will be over.” And that is why all third parties and candidates would have to think carefully about what they are doing.

By this, Gephardt not only means “No Labels”, but also independent candidates such as the African-American political scientist Cornel West, the Green candidate Jill Stein or Robert Kennedy Jr., who initially ran unsuccessfully for the Democrats and now wants to try it on his own. The 70-year-old nephew of John F. Kennedy is not yet allowed to vote everywhere, but polls show him ten percent or more of the vote.

Hopeless Third party candidates

But the vaccination opponent Kennedy, with the sonorous last name and a penchant for conspiracy theories, has more in common with Trump than with Biden, says Professor Barbara Perry from the University of Virginia: “That’s why I think he’s more likely to take votes away from Trump than Biden.”

A look at recent history shows that just a few hundred votes for an actually hopeless candidate can decide on the presidency, explains the political scientist. In 2000, the Green Party’s Ralph Nader received tens of thousands of votes in the electorally decisive state of Florida. Only a few of them would have been enough for Democrat Al Gore to win the election. But that’s how George W. Bush became president at the time.

Political scientist Perry believes that that was certainly not the election outcome that these Green voters wanted at the time. But in America’s two-party system, third-party candidates have virtually no chance of winning. They can only be spoilsports. But whose game they will spoil this time has not yet been decided.