Premier League – Mercato – Declan Rice, tracked by Arsenal and Manchester City, is he worth more than 105 million?

There was a time when the bar of 100 million euros for a transfer was symbolic. It is largely over. Today, Gareth Bale and Paul Pogba, who were the first to reach it, were largely beaten. Since 2017, eleven transfers have exceeded this amount. This summer, Jude Bellingham (103M) was the first to do so but will not be the only one: it is almost confirmed that Declan Rice will beat him.

The ‘popcorn’ question is whether City or Arsenal will win this battle. But in a more down to earth way, one can also wonder if Rice is really worth such an amount. It is no longer fashionable to be surprised at prices, with each crazier transaction having multiplied since the arrivals of Neymar and Kylian Mbappé at PSG in 2017. But it is still interesting to compare them. And Rice should, at a minimum, make the top 10 most expensive transfers in history. He only has one year left on his contract.

A classic of the English market

How to explain that several clubs are ready to make him integrate this category? By first looking at where they come from. The Premier League is used to blowing the counters, and is not far from walking on the head when two clubs of the Kingdom negotiate between them, well aware that all this money spent stays at home, fueling a virtuous circle. When it concerns an English talent, this logic is exacerbated, as much by pride as by “obligation” to promote local players. It is recalled that the “homegrown rule” forces English clubs to submit, at the end of each transfer window, a list of a maximum of 25 players, including at least 8 who have spent three or more years in England before their 21st birthday.

This is how Manchester United paid 87 million euros to Leicester for Harry Maguire and 55 million to Crystal Palace for Aaron Wan-Bissaka in 2019. Ben White had cost Arsenal 58.5 million euros, which had bailed out the coffers of Brighton in 2021. And what about the 117.5 million paid by Manchester City to Aston Villa for Jack Grealish the same summer. For the past few weeks, Chelsea have estimated that the 64 million euros offered by United for Mason Mount are insufficient.

Unlike some of the players just mentioned, Rice also faces stiff competition. Arsenal thought they had a boulevard in this case, but Manchester City got stuck there. West Ham is therefore in a chair to temporize and bring competition into play, in a soap opera that has only just begun.

Young and international

Rice ticks other boxes of the exorbitant transfer: he is young (24 years old), English international (43 selections), considered an essential pawn by Gareth Southgate and already has a Euro and a World Cup in his paws. Captain of West Ham for three years, he played a major role in the Hammers’ victory in the Europa League Conference this season. In summary, in England, his name begins to count.

Beyond a physical reliability that is obvious – Rice has only missed 13 matches over the last five Premier League seasons, only James Tarkowski has played more among the outfield players – it emerges that the English international has, without the ball, an above-average reading of the game, and therefore a real science of placement and interception. His successful tackle rate (70%) was the best in the Kingdom last season, and his contribution in the air – 59% of aerial duels won – is an additional asset, from the height of his 1.88m.

A profile that raises questions

In possession, Rice is invaluable in passing the ball cleanly, and is very comfortable winning yards on the ball, with sharp runs. But at 24, his club career comes down to West Ham, and in large part to David Moyes, far from being renowned for the quality, or at least the attractiveness, of the game he advocates.

Rice has thus never been accustomed to pressing very high in the 4-2-3-1 of the Hammers, no more than in selection, where he is positioned as a sentry in front of the defense. A legitimate doubt therefore exists as to his ability to adapt to the style of recovery desired by Pep Guardiola or Mikel Arteta. Because if Rice succeeds the majority of his tackles, he realizes little: he is more in the accompaniment and the framing of the opponent than in the harassment.

With the ball at his feet, he is sometimes criticized for an excess of caution, again linked, at least in part, to the instructions of David Moyes. Rice has never exceeded the bar of four assists – and four goals, moreover – in a Premier League season, even if his statistics are improving.

In summary, the Londoner is a high level player, who would have his place in the rotation at the Citizens as at the Gunners. But would he bring as much as a Rodri, more than a Granit Xhaka or a Thomas Partey? This is the question to (more) than 105 million. And the simple fact of asking it makes us say that in the state, we are quite far from the right price.