Status: 07.01.2022 5:58 p.m.
Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev has broken with ex-ruler Nazarbayev. Now he is bringing foreign troops into the country and shooting demonstrators. What drives him to be brutal?
After violent riots by protesters in Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is acting increasingly brutal: First he asked the security alliance CSTO, whose strongest force is Russia, for a military operation against “terrorists” in the streets, the next day he issued the order to security authorities, Shoot protesters without warning. Photos and videos that leaked out of the country despite the internet connection being switched off again and again showed violent battle scenes. A willingness to use violence on the part of the government, which does not prove Tokayev’s control over a strong security apparatus, but rather a panic reaction: “It seems to me that Tokayev is completely taken by surprise by the events and is acting helplessly,” says Central Asia analyst Beate Eschment from the Center for Eastern European Studies (ZOIS) in Potsdam.
Break with Nazarbayev
Tokayev had only reacted to the angry “Old man, get out of it!” Shouts of the demonstrators, who were primarily referring to his predecessor in office, Nursultan Nazarbayev, with only minimal concessions, of which it was clear at an early stage that the population would not be sufficient: a drop in oil prices, the dismissal of ministers, and Nazarbayev’s resignation from all remaining offices.
He had led the country for almost three decades since independence in 1990 – and even after his retirement as president in 2019, he remained the central figure of power as chairman of the ruling party and head of the Security Council. Then demonstrations broke out, protesters tore his statue from its pedestal in Almaty, users scoffed in social networks that it was hollow inside – a beacon for the power apparatus created by the “leader of the nation”. On Thursday, Russian news media reported that Nazarbayev’s private plane had flown from Nur-Sultan to Dubai – its whereabouts are unclear, and so far there has been no comment on the events in Kazakhstan.
“Uncharismatic bureaucrat” with no ideas
Tokayev, on the other hand, had ruled out his own retreat from the start and has now taken all of Nazarbayev’s offices. Wasn’t the public rupture inconvenient for him out of his own striving for power? Signs that both were crossed, observers have recently made out: Both traveled to the CIS summit in Saint Petersburg in separate planes – one month after Tokayev took over the chairmanship of the ruling party.
ZOIS expert Eschment views such speculations with skepticism: She points out that Nazarbayev had appointed his successor Tokayev himself in 2019 – he was a “completely uncharismatic bureaucrat” whose thinking was shaped by Soviet structures and who has so far strictly fulfilled his duty . “It is unlikely that someone like that would suddenly have brilliant ideas on how to reform the country – you don’t need Nazarbayev to slow you down.”
It is true that Kazakhstan’s first president regards the country in its current form as his “life’s work” – but it is just as plausible that at the age of 81 he simply did not get involved in a power struggle for health reasons.
“I even think that Tokayev is sticking to the system created by Nazarbayev and only making cosmetic changes,” says Assel Tutumlu, who teaches and researches at the Near East University in Northern Cyprus, among other things, on the economic policy of authoritarian states in Central Asia. Regardless of his public defection, the president held a protective hand over the economic resources that Nazarbayev’s family and confidants had amassed.
Can Tokayev hold his own?
Tokayev’s further approach also speaks against the theory of “palace intrigue”: If it were only about personal conflicts with the father, he could have turned to the Kazakhs after the break with the “old man” and after the alleged fulfillment of their demands he could have turned to the Kazakhs for support again . But with the summoning of the CSTO soldiers and the order to shoot civilians, he went a few steps further – it is unclear who will advise him.
Eschment doubts that he has a clear plan for his approach – because now he has also shaken the part of the population that still stands by him: “In the country there are great concerns about the Russian superiority and their possible interests in Kazakh territory – and when the president then invites troops from this country to shoot Kazakhs, he has made himself completely impossible and can now no longer govern otherwise than with all his might. “
Tutumlu is more optimistic: In the best case scenario, the CSTO operation could be limited to Almaty, where the unrest was worst, she says. “If it stays that way and there is calm, Russia and the other CSTO troops could withdraw within a week or two. Tokayev could then say, ‘Now that we have stopped the bandits, we can tackle reforms’ and actually rely on them let in – for example in local elections also allow candidates who are not close to the government. “
“Showcase operation” for Russia
The expert admits, however: This scenario is countered by the massive rejection of the operation in the population – reports are already circulating about Kazakh nationalists calling for armed resistance against the troops. “If there are then street battles with the dead, it will take revenge – and then Tokayev would not be able to stay in power without becoming completely dictatorial.”
It is not known whether Tokayev agreed to the CSTO operation under pressure from Moscow or out of fear of a Belarusian scenario – Belarus’ ruler Alexander Lukashenko, who after years of peaceful citizen protests can only survive with the support of the Kremlin, publicly spoke of a necessary ” “Rescuing” Kazakhstan so that the country would not be given to the West as a “gift” like Ukraine.
Tutumlu, at least, does not expect the Kremlin to intervene for a comparably long time: Russia’s President is much less interested in Kazakhstan than in Ukraine and Belarus, whose nations he glorifies as “one people” in essays. He can only justify his deployment in Kazakhstan by means of a clear limitation: “For Putin this is a ‘showcase operation’ that shows autocrats around the world: ‘If you have similar problems, we will come and help you.’ So everything has to go according to plan. ”
One thing is clear: Tokayev has now made himself dependent on Russia – and can no longer act independently.