It was a gloomy week for Portugal’s beaming man. Usually, the Portuguese president entertains his compatriots with appearances in which he is distinguished above all by his affability and his nonchalance. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who is only called “Marcelo” by the Portuguese, likes to show himself on the beach in swimming trunks, presents his 72-year-old well-toned upper body at the vaccination appointment and once marched on foot to his swearing-in. Clear message: This president is casual – and still has everything under control.
But for a week at the latest, it has become apparent that Rebelo de Sousa has miscalculated. Portugal’s President shares responsibility for a political situation for which the commonly used word “government crisis” seems almost harmless. Portugal’s left minority government, which has led the country surprisingly stable through the past months of the Corona crisis, is as good as at the end. By Thursday evening, President Rebelo de Sousa had announced a decision on whether he would really dissolve parliament and thus make a new election necessary.
It should come like this – provided the President keeps his word. And this is precisely the dilemma in which Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has maneuvered himself: Even before the negotiations on the state budget for the coming year were concluded, Rebelo de Sousa made a momentous announcement in mid-October. If Prime Minister António Costa does not get a majority for his budget, he, Marcelo, would not hesitate to dissolve parliament and call new elections. Rebelo de Sousa wanted to put pressure on the left parties to come to an agreement. But that didn’t work. The weekly newspaper writes that the shot backfired Expresso, even if nobody expected this at the time.
Prime Minister Costa is proud, he has moved the country from austerity to solidarity
Last Wednesday evening, what Rebelo de Sousa wanted to prevent happened: Costa’s spending plan for the coming year failed in parliament. Only the 108 socialist MPs voted for the budget, 117 MPs voted against, five abstained. Left bloc, communists and the Greens were Costa’s plans not social enough, they wanted more money to cushion the economic consequences of the corona pandemic. Costa planned, among other things, an increase in the minimum wage by 40 euros to 705 euros per month and a pension increase – but at the same time compliance with the Maastricht criterion. He wanted a social budget, the most social for years, and at the same time reduce the deficit to 3.2 percent.
This balancing act has been his government’s recipe for success over the past six years. And Costa is proud to have sailed Portugal from austerity to solidarity, as he himself says. He received recognition for this not only from other Social Democrats, but also from President Marcelo, whose law lectures Costa had once attended as a student.
Although Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa belongs to the conservative PSD and the socialist Costa ruled with the support of the left bloc and communists, the relationship between the two has so far been considered good. Political cooperation worked so smoothly during the Corona crisis that people from Spain looked over to the neighboring country with full respect for so much political pragmatism. Both men seemed to be comfortable making compromises. And now this: Has Rebelo de Sousa just miscalculated or is he hoping for a change of power in the end?
Should the president expect the Conservatives to rule after the new election, this hope may be deceptive. Experts such as Francisco Pereira Coutinho, constitutional lawyer at the Universidade Nova in Lisbon, expect that the right-wing extremist Chega party in particular will benefit from an early election. Because the conservative PSD is entangled in internal conflicts that can hardly be resolved by mid-January. Then it would be election date at the earliest. On the other hand, Costa can hardly hope for gains either. It could be an election with lots of losers.
But the consequences for the reconstruction of the country are likely to be even more important. Despite Costa’s balancing act, Portugal has the third largest national debt in the EU, after Greece and Italy. A government capable of acting is all the more crucial in the coming months. It has to plan and spend the money from the EU reconstruction fund and at the same time comply with the EU’s requirements. If the election is actually in January, a new budget should not be available until April at the earliest. In the event of a change of power, projects that have already been planned may have to be renegotiated. All things that cost valuable time and stall the flow of money from Brussels. The rating agency Moody’s has already pointed out the economic risk that the current situation poses for Portugal. And the daily newspaper Publico in Lisbon spoke of the high “political risks” that Marcelo’s decision entails.
The president, who otherwise does not shy away from the public, was comparatively cautious in this difficult week for him. He assured the press that everyone around him was trying to get the best out of himself. However, he did not feel pressured by this, neither from his party nor from the others. And there it was again for a brief moment, his usual casualness.